Mumbai, July 06 (Commoditiescontrol):South India has witnessed its lowest June rainfall in over a century, the lowest since 1901, with the region receiving only 88.6 millimetres (mm) of rainfall, 45% less than the norm from 1971 to 2020, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The substantial deficit has been attributed to the severe cyclone Biparjoy and unique wind system interactions influencing the progress of the monsoon winds.
Many southern states are grappling with vast rainfall deficits, despite a quick monsoon progression in the past 10 days and a nationwide rainfall shortfall of only 10% at the end of June. As of July 4, four southern states, including Telangana, Kerala, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh, are recording deficient rainfall, ranging from a 26% deficit in Andhra Pradesh to a significant 53% deficit in Telangana.Kerala, one of India's most rain-rich states and home to the Western Ghats' pristine rainforests, has seen a 34% rainfall deficit during the pre-monsoon period, reflecting a concerning trend of decreased rainfall since March.
"The monsoon has been strikingly anomalous in its onset and progress due to unusual interactions between Typhoon Mawar, Bay of Bengal winds, and the blocking of the monsoon trough for several weeks," says Raghu Murtugudde, a climate scientist at the University of Maryland and Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay.
The monsoon made its belated arrival a week late, with Cyclone Biparjoy's unexpected late formation causing further interruptions. The Arabian Sea's significant warming by over 1.5 degrees Celsius since January allowed Biparjoy to persist for nearly 10 days, impacting the monsoon's timely arrival over the Western Ghats and peninsular India.
Despite the swift progress of the monsoon over the entire country by July 2, six days ahead of the normal date, future conditions may not improve considerably. The IMD's July outlook suggests a likelihood of below-normal rainfall in large parts of Tamil Nadu and southern Karnataka, possibly leading to flooding in the Western Ghats.
Further complicating the picture is the emergence of the El Nino weather phenomenon, declared by the World Meteorological Organization on July 4 and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on June 8. This condition, characterized by warmer than average temperatures, often leads to suppressed monsoon rainfall. While IMD has not declared El Nino conditions yet, its July outlook suggests that the phenomenon might develop later in the month.
"The El Nino effects are subdued so far due to these unique confluences of natural variabilities like typhoons and cyclones, which were influenced by warming oceans, especially over the northern Arabian Sea," said Murtugudde. However, the impacts of El Nino may become more apparent in July and the months to follow, possibly resulting in more extreme weather conditions over the northern Western Ghats, Northwest India, and even Pakistan.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: +91 9820130172)
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