MUMBAI, 8 June (Commoditiescontrol)In a recent advisory issued by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, it has been confirmed that El Nino has officially made a comeback. This climate phenomenon is expected to bring about severe weather conditions later this year, ranging from tropical cyclones heading towards vulnerable Pacific islands to heavy rainfall in South America and drought in Australia.
After three years of the La Nina climate pattern, which typically results in a slight decrease in global temperatures, the hotter El Nino has resurfaced. El Nino is born out of abnormally warm waters in the Eastern Pacific, near the coast of South America, often accompanied by a slowdown or reversal of the easterly trade winds.
The advisory stated, "In May, weak El Nino conditions emerged as above-average sea surface temperatures strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean." The last time El Nino was in effect, in 2016, it led to the hottest year ever recorded worldwide. Combined with the effects of climate change, the years 2023 or 2024 could potentially reach new temperature highs.
To determine the onset of El Nino, most experts rely on two primary agencies for confirmation: the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). However, these agencies employ slightly different criteria for declaring El Nino, with the Australian definition being slightly stricter.
NOAA considers ocean temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific to be indicative of El Nino when they are at least 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal for the preceding month. Additionally, this condition must persist or be expected to continue for five consecutive, overlapping three-month periods. NOAA also examines the weakening of trade winds and cloud cover.
Australia's BOM, on the other hand, requires higher temperatures, with key regions of the eastern Pacific needing to be 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.5 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than average. On Tuesday, Australia released its bulletin, indicating a 70% chance of El Nino developing this year.
NOAA predicts a 56% chance of a strong El Nino event, characterized by Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures that are at least 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than normal, when the phenomenon reaches its peak strength, typically during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Such a strong El Nino could lead to more intense impacts globally, including droughts and cyclones.
The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to the effects of El Nino. Early signs of hot and dry weather linked to the phenomenon are already posing a threat to food producers across Asia. Conversely, American farmers are anticipating heavier summer rains resulting from El Nino to mitigate the impacts of severe drought.
Australia, in particular, is bracing for a potential 34% drop in winter crop production compared to record highs, and palm oil and rice production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand could also be affected. These countries collectively supply 80% of the world's palm oil. India, heavily reliant on monsoon rains for its summer crop, may face some offsetting impacts from El Nino through the Indian Ocean Dipole, but below-normal rainfall is expected over northwestern parts of the country.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)
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