Mumbai, 15 June (Commoditiescontrol):The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced the onset of the monsoon season on June 8. Despite this early declaration, meteorologists and experts expressed concerns over whether all criteria were met, predicting a weak and slow onset.
Meteorological debates centered around Cyclone Biparjoy. Some experts argued that the cyclone, not the monsoon, was responsible for the rainfall. However, IMD Director General M Mohapatra maintained that Biparjoy had initially assisted the monsoon. Mohapatra explained, "Because of the cyclone, the wind flow from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere was strengthened. The cyclone moved very slowly and helped advance the monsoon."
With the cyclone now separate from the monsoon circulation, concerns arise about its potential impact on the monsoon through June 18. Post-18th, monsoon circulation is anticipated to strengthen and extend across more parts of Peninsular and east India by June 21.
However, since June 11, the monsoon has seen little progress. As of now, the northern limit of monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Ratnagiri, Koppal, Puttaparthi, Shriharikota, Malda, and Forbesganj. Experts predict a lack of monsoon surge, with rains over peninsular India possibly resuming in three to four days.
As of today, there is a 53% rain deficiency since June 1, as reported by IMD. This deficiency varies across regions, with the southern peninsula experiencing a 54% deficiency, central India at 73%, northwest India at 20%, and east and northeast India at 48%.
As the monsoon lags behind, the agricultural sector is also affected. Farmers are being advised to prepare for this year's monsoon delay. The anticipated shortage of rain could delay sowing and affect the yield, particularly for water-intensive crops like paddy, cotton, and sugar cane.
To adapt to the changing weather patterns, experts suggest shifting to less water-intensive crops like pulses and oilseeds. Furthermore, there is a call for implementing critical irrigation during dry periods and establishing a comprehensive insurance mechanism to cover residual risk.
This year, IMD predicts a normal monsoon, expecting rainfall to be 96% of the long period average (LPA). However, this estimate is at the lower end of the 'normal' range, raising concerns amid the anticipated El Nino weather phenomenon that often corresponds to poor monsoon performance. On the other hand, Skymet Weather, a private forecaster, predicts a "below normal" rainfall at 94% of LPA.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: +91-9820130172)
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