MUMBAI(Commoditiescontrol)- In its first estimate of 2017-18 crop, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has predicted that world cotton output will rise 2% to 23.4 million tons. The increase is the result of an expansion in planted area, which is expected to grow by 5% to 30.6 million hectares after two seasons of contraction. The world average yield, after improving 13% to 781 kg/ha in 2016-17, is projected to shrink 2% to 764 kg/ha in 2017-18.
In 2016-17, area under cotton in India, the largest cotton-producing country, fell 12% to 10.5 million hectares due to competition from food crops. However, the average yield recovered by 16% to 560 kg/ha, and production in 2016-17 is estimated to rise 2% to 5.9 million tons (347 lakh bales of 170 kg each).
For 2017-18, India’s area is forecast to recover 7% to 11.2 million hectares as firm domestic cotton prices and less attractive prices for competing crops would attract more farmers to cotton. Assuming a national average yield of 530 kg/ha, production will increase by 1% to 6 million tons (353 lakh bales).
Cotton area in China declined for five consecutive seasons, reaching 2.8 million hectares in 2016-17. However, output has not fallen as rapidly due to the fact that the share of cotton grown in Xinjiang, which has higher yields than other producing regions in China, has increased considerably. China’s cotton production in 2016-17 is estimated at 4.7 million tons (276 lakh bales). In 2017-18, cotton area may expand 3% to 2.9 million hectares, and cotton output could reach 4.8 million tons (282 lakh bales).
Following a season of higher than expected yields and firm cotton prices, cotton area in the United States is expected to expand 10% to 4.2 million hectares in 2017-18. The average yield improved 12% to 958 kg/ha in 2016-17, and production is estimated at 3.7 million tons (218 lakh bales). In 2017-18, production is projected to rise 7% to 4 million tons (235 lakh bales), assuming an average yield of 935 kg/ha.
A significant drop in yields and poor returns in 2015-16 led to a 12% decrease to 2.5 million hectares in Pakistan’s cotton area in 2016-17. The average yield recovered 32% to 699 kg/ha and output is estimated up 17% to 1.8 million tons (105 lakh bales). Pakistan’s cotton area is forecast to increase 3% to 2.6 million hectares in 2017-18, and assuming a yield of 739 kg/ha, Pakistan’s production could reach 1.9 million tons (112 lakh bales).
World cotton mill use is expected to remain stable at 24.1 million tons in 2016-17 as high cotton prices discouraged growth in demand. However, mill use may expand 1% to 24.3 million tons in 2017-18. Mill use in the top three consuming countries, China, India, and Pakistan, is expected to remain unchanged from 2016-17. However, mill use is forecast to grow in Turkey, Bangladesh, and Vietnam by 2% to 1.5 million tons, by 5% to 1.5 million tons, and by 7% to 1.2 million tons, respectively.
Given the continued growth in mill use in countries that depend on imports, world cotton trade is projected to increase by 5% to 8.2 million tons in 2017-18 from 7.8 million tons in 2016-17. Bangladesh is likely to maintain its position as the world’s largest importer of cotton with its volume forecast to rise by 5% to 1.5 million tons. Vietnam’s import volume is projected to grow by 8% to 1.3 million tons. Given the large exportable surplus and strong demand, exports from the United States are anticipated to rise by 17% to 3.2 million tons in 2017-18. India’s exports are forecast to fall 7% to 875,000 tons in 2017-18.
World cotton stocks are expected to decline 6% at the end of 2016-17 to 18.1 million tons as China reduces its stocks by 17% to 9.3 million tons. However, stocks outside of China are projected to increase 8% to 8.8 million tons or 36% of mill use in 2016-17.
View the data in tabular form along with figures converted into Lakh Bales (170 kg each)
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015534)
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