MUMBAI(Commoditiescontrol):An unprecedented loss of around 9% is estimated to hit this year’s cotton production, states the official report released by Cotton Association of India(CAI). The severe Pink Boll Worm attack has inflicted cotton crop in various regions of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana but major impact was observed in Maharashtra.
The Cotton Association of India(CAI) estimates production to increase 11% at 375 lakh bales(1 bale= 170Kgs) for the 2017/18 season, compared to last season at 337.25 lakh bales on account of 20% increase in planted area at 122.59 lakh ha and after assuming 9% crop loss after the pink boll worm attack.
However, initial assessment from traders and farmers narrate a slightly severe scenario which has created speculation of large crop loss and quality deterioration. Let’s look at what the experts have to say over this situation.
Crop Insight
This year’s cotton production will be huge disappointment to those who have recently shifted to cotton in expectation of higher returns. Vidarbha Farmers areanticipating around 50% loss this year due to the influence of Pink Boll Worm(PBW).
“I was expecting around 10-15 quintal/acre crop, which turned out to be only 2-2.5 quintal/acre due to Pink Boll Worm. In total, I have procured only 40 quintals”, said Suresh Sardar who cultivated 15 acres cotton farm in Akola.
Echoing the same opinion, Pranay Waghmare who owns cotton farm in Yavatmal district said, “We have lost about 50% crop this time. Situation is also serious in other regions like Jalgaon, Yavatmal, Jalna, Akola and Washim”.
The Pink Boll Worm has developed due to the an erosion of resistance to the pest in transgenic varieties seed like BT. A decade prolong use of BT seed, lack of accurate inputs and crop care practices, pest developed resistance to the technology, making it vulnerable to pink boll worm attack.
Agricultural expert, Dr. V. M. Bale said, “As per our research, PBW has more impact in the irrigated farms as compare rain-led farms. Moreover, late sowing and excess use of pesticides can make crop vulnerable for attack. Adding to that, infections in the seed like BG-II seed which used for 90% cotton cultivation in Maharashtra can be the reason behind that. Although, exact cause and effected production number are still under survey.”
Explaining the damage control of the situation Dr. Bale said, “ It is not something which is incurable. We can re-treat the plants with proper chemical pesticides. Precautions are there.”
Market Talk
The PBW has hit the market with the storm but market is yet to determine after math of it. Speculations range between 15-20% of loss in crop area and thereby, reducing yield.
“Around 20-30% of total sown area at 42 lakh ha has been affected with quality deterioration and yield loss. Further, production could decline by 10-12% compared to last season when production estimates ranged between 90-95 lakh bales,” said Mr Kishan Bajaj, Managing Director, Bajaj Cotton Industries, Yavatmal, Maharashtra.
“Further, due to inconsistent monsoon rains, ‘fardar’ variety cotton production is likely to drop as compared to last season and there could be inconsistency in premium variety lint (28-30mm) along with shortage in 30mm variety compared to last year,” he added.
Manoj Goyanka, Director, Shri Balaji Ginning and Pressing Industries, Hinghanghat “Around 50% of the total Maharashtra crop has been harvested as of end of November and the remaining 20% of the crop will be harvested by mid-December. This year farmers resorted to two stages of crop harvesting which was earlier than the anticipated period due to labor issues. Hence, around 70% of the total crop will be picked and farmers will hold the stock reserve in order to achieve better price.”
“Since the beginning of the 2017/18 season, an assumption of 20 lakh bales have been accounted with quality issues from the total all India arrival at 60 lakh bales as of November 28. This 20 lakh bales should have been of superior quality however due to unexpected pest attack and inconsistent monsoon weather season has attributed to quality loss,” he added.
Speaking on exports, he said, “At present, MNCs who deal in exports, from South India, are the active buyers accounting for nearly 70% of the total quantity sold. They were purchasing those inconsistent quality cotton stock in the price range of Rs 34,000-36,000/candy with most exports to Bangladesh.”
Conclusion
Judging by the comments from experts and on-going speculation, it seems easy to jump on the speculation bandwagon and concluding over this matter.
Sure, the Indian cotton crop would face inconsistency in premium variety cotton and most could be pinned at an estimation of 5% from the total production ranging between 360-370 lakh bales.
Before the PBW attack, trade estimates ranged between 380-400 lakh bales and due to crop loss, the estimates have fallen in the range of 360-370 lakh bales.
However various expert suggestion is to await detailed analysis as Maharashtra farmers would harvest 70% of the crop until mid-December.
Cotton prices prior to PBW attack was trending in the range of 37,000-39,000/candy and post PBW attack, prices have failed to breach the ‘pre-PBW attack’ range. Traders have held back until more information comes to light clearing the fog of speculation and have resorted to only need based buying in the market.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015534)
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