MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) – The Central Statistics Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the First Advance estimates of national income for the financial year 2016-17. It is apparent that the estimates are short of the impact that demonetisation has had on the economic growth during Q3 and likely in Q4 of fiscal 2016-17.
GDP growth has been pegged at 7.1% in real terms and 10.8% at current prices for 2016-17. The statement released by the CSO said that sector-wise estimates are obtained by extrapolation of indicators like (i) Index of Industrial Production of first 7 months of the financial year, (ii) financial performance of listed companies in the private corporate sector available upto quarter ending September, 2016 (ii) 1st advance estimates of crop production, (iii) accounts of Central & State Governments, information on indicators like sales tax, deposits & credits, passenger and freight earnings of railways, passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation, cargo handled at major sea ports, sales of commercial vehicles etc. available for first 7/8 months of the financial year.
This implies that the official estimates have not considered the impact of demonetisation on various sectors, which will reflect in the GDP estimates for Q3 2016-17, to be released end of this month. Incomplete data of such importance needs to be handled carefully to retain credibility.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015522)
0 Comments 
Post Comment 
