MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - U.S. Department Of Agriculture (USDA) in its latest attache report lowered India’s cotton production forecast to 356 lakh bales (170kgs each).
USDA’s FAS Mumbai said that yields are down in Punjab and Haryana due to white fly attacks and pink bollworm in Gujarat.
That apart, crop in Gujarat also was affected by heavy rains during the first month of planting and endured a long dry spell during the boll formation stage.
The department said the rate of this season’s arrivals are slowest in the past three years as farmers hold cotton for higher prices and production forecast cut back. It also attributed this season’s slow arrivals to a 32 percent in planted acreage.
Also, the lag in arrivals is attributable to late sowing, inadequate rains, and high levels of pest incidence during growth stages which subsequently affected boll maturation.
As on 27th January, 2016, Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) estimated all India cotton arrivals at 144 lakh bales. Daily arrivals in the country are estimated at around 1.55 lakh bales.
Currently, arrivals are lagging by almost 30 percent compared to the previous year.
Consumption forecast for 2015-16 has been lowered to 24.8 million (480lb) bales, 200,000 bales lower than previous estimate. Though mill consumption for 2015-16 could pick up with support from certain Government of India issued export benefits for the textile sector, the year-to-date consumption trend is down and it may be difficult to regain ground over the remainder of the season.
Import forecast is 800,000 (480 lb) bales for the season. Trade sources indicate that mills will begin limiting imports as newer crop arrivals pick up.
Exports are estimated at 5.2 million (480 lb) bales (6 million 170 kg bales/1 mmt) and reflects a decrease from the USDA official forecast.
Shipments to Bangladesh and Pakistan remained strong. However, trade sources indicate that Indian exports to Bangladesh market may see a drop in the coming months as Bangladesh mills face liquidity issues, and Pakistan reaches its limited buying capacity while covering its immediate shortfall.
Exports primarily consisted of new crop Shankar 6 and MCU 5 cotton varieties. Vietnam and China were the other major export markets. Indian currency has weakened against the dollar by more 2 percent since December 2015 providing much needed incentive to the exporters to explore newer markets.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015522)
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