NEW DELHI, Nov 9 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest November report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled up its forecast for global cotton ending stocks in 2023-24 to 81.50 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 79.92 million bales projected in October 2023.
This month’s 2023/24 global cotton balance sheet includes lower consumption, but higher production and stocks. Beginning stocks are 200,000 bales higher largely due to a 300,000-bale increase in India’s 2022/23 production based on data from their Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption.
The global production forecast for 2023/24 is 850,000 bales higher this month as larger expected crops in Afghanistan, the United States, Argentina, and Paraguay offset reductions in Spain and Mexico.
Global consumption is 500,000 bales lower, with cuts for Vietnam, Turkey, and the United States.
World trade is little changed from the previous month despite a 500,000-bale increase in China’s projected imports, as declines for Vietnam, Turkey, Korea, and Thailand are largely offsetting.
At 81.5 million bales, 2023/24 global cotton ending stocks are projected 1.6 million bales higher than in October. China accounts for nearly one-third of this increase as higher imports are largely expected to be for the State Reserve.
The 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows slightly lower consumption but higher production and ending stocks this month.
Production is 273,000 bales higher, at 13.1 million bales, as lower production in Texas is more than offset elsewhere.
Domestic mill use is 100,000 bales lower, reflecting the pace of recent consumption, and exports are unchanged, leaving ending stocks 400,000 bales higher at 3.2 million bales or 22.5 percent of use.
The 2023/24 season-average price for upland cotton is reduced 3 cents this month to 77 cents per pound.
USDA- 2023-24 (Nov 2023) vs 2022-23 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock- 83.04/76.39
Production-113.46/116.65
Import- 43.30/37.24
Consumption-115.30/110.92
Export- 43.31/37.03
Ending Stock- 81.50/83.04
INDIA
Opening Stock-11.82/8.40
Production-25/26.30
Import-1.30/1.73
Consumption-24/23.50
Export-1.80/1.10
Ending Stock-12.32/11.82
US
Opening Stock-4.25/4.05
Production-13.09/14.47
Import 0.01/
Consumption-2.05/2.05
Export-12.20/12.77
Ending Stock-3.20/4.25
CHINA
Opening Stock-37.40/38.06
Production-27/30.70
Import-10.50/6.23
Consumption-37.50/37.50
Ending Stock-37.30/37.40
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-5.76/3.88
Production-14.56/11.72
Consumption-3.30/3.20
Export- 11.80/6.66
Ending Stock-5.24/5.76
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-1.53/1.93
Production-6.50/3.90
Import- 4.20/4.50
Consumption-10/8.70
Export-0.08/0.10
Ending Stock-2.15/1.53
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.93/2.33
Production-0.16/0.15
Import-7.70/6.55
Consumption-7.70/7.10
Ending Stock-2.09/1.93
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.05/1.02
Import-6.70/6.47
Consumption-6.70/6.45
Ending Stock-1.05/1.05
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-4.77/4.96
Production-5.10/5.80
Export-5.70/6.17
Ending Stock- 4.36/4.77
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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