NEW DELHI, Sept 12 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest September report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has once again further scaled down its forecast for global cotton ending stocks in 2023-24 to 89.96 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 91.60 million bales projected in August 2023.
The 2023/24 world cotton projections include lower beginning stocks, production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month.
Beginning stocks are about 1 million bales lower as the effects of upward revisions for earlier years’ consumption in China and Turkey more than offset the impact of larger U.S. and Brazil beginning stocks.
World production is projected 1.7 million bales lower as reductions for the United States, India, the African Franc Zone, Greece, and Mexico more than offset an increase for Brazil.
World consumption is also more than 1 million bales lower, with reductions in India, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam.
World trade is 600,000 bales lower with net import reductions for Bangladesh and Vietnam, and export reductions for the Franc Zone, the United States, Australia, Greece, and Mexico more than offsetting a 550,000-bale increase for Brazil.
World ending stocks are 1.6 million bales lower this month, at 90 million bales.
The 2023/24 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks but lower production, exports, and ending stocks.
Beginning stocks are estimated to increase 550,000 bales, largely reflecting ending stocks data for the previous year from the Agricultural Marketing Service and the NASS Cotton System Consumption and Stocks report.
Beginning stocks were also increased for 2022/23 as unexpectedly large warehouse stocks reported for July 31, 2023 indicated stocks in-transit as of July 31, 2022 were higher than previously estimated.
The 2023/24 U.S. production forecast is 860,000 bales lower this month, with the Southeast and Southwest leading the decline.
Projected consumption is unchanged from August, but exports are down 200,000 bales and ending stocks are 100,000 bales lower.
The season-average price for upland cotton projected for 2023/24 is 80 cents per pound, up 1 cent from the previous month.
USDA- 2023-24 (Sept 2023) vs 2022-23 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock- 93.18/84.50
Production-112.39/118.70
Import- 43.27/37.15
Consumption-115.88/110.91
Export- 43.27/36.98
Ending Stock- 89.96/93.18
INDIA
Opening Stock-11.70/8.60
Production-25.50/26
Import-1.30/1.75
Consumption-24/23.50
Export-2/1.15
Ending Stock-12/11.70
US
Opening Stock-4.25/4.05
Production-13.13/14.47
Import 0.01/-
Consumption-2.15/2.05
Export-12.30/12.77
Ending Stock-3/4.25
CHINA
Opening Stock-37.40/38.06
Production-27/30.70
Import-10/6.23
Consumption-37.50/37.50
Ending Stock-36.80/37.40
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-16.39/11.84
Production-13.80/14.40
Consumption-3.30/3.20
Export- 11.80/6.66
Ending Stock-15.11/16.39
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-1.53/1.93
Production-6.50/3.90
Import- 4.20/4.50
Consumption-10/8.70
Export-0.08/0.10
Ending Stock-2.15/1.53
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.93/2.33
Production-0.16/0.15
Import-7.70/6.55
Consumption-7.70/7.10
Ending Stock-2.09/1.93
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.05/1.02
Import-6.90/6.47
Consumption-6.90/6.45
Ending Stock-1.05/1.05
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-4.78/4.96
Production-5.40/5.80
Export-5.80/6.16
Ending Stock- 4.57/4.78
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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