NEW DELHI, August 11 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest August report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton ending stocks in 2023-24 to 91.60 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 94.52 million bales projected in July 2023.
Global 2023/24 production is forecast 2.7 million bales lower this month, and consumption is 500,000 bales higher, resulting in a decrease in projected ending stocks of 2.9 million bales.
In addition to the U.S. crop change, world production is reduced an additional 200,000 bales as extreme heat in Uzbekistan reduced yield prospects. World trade is 400,000 bales higher this month, with increases in imports by China and Turkey.
Projected exports are also higher this month as increases for Brazil and Australia offset declines for the United States and Benin. Consumption in 2023/24 is projected higher than a month ago in China and Turkey, and lower in Indonesia.
In this month’s 2023/24 U.S. cotton projections, beginning stocks are larger, and a 2.5-million-bale decrease in production results in lower exports, domestic use, and ending stocks.
Beginning stocks are larger as this month’s 2022/23 ending stocks are increased 450,000 bales reflecting slightly lower exports and July 29 warehouse inventory levels in the AMS Bales Made Available for Shipment report.
NASS’s first survey-based estimate of production for 2023/24 is 14.0 million bales, down 2.5 million, with the crop reduced by higher projected abandonment and reduced yield in the Southwest. Exports are projected 1.3-million bales lower than in July due to reduced U.S. supply and increased competition from Brazil and Australia.
Ending stocks are 700,000 bales lower, at 3.1 million bales. The U.S. season-average price for upland cotton is forecast 3 cents higher this month at 79 cents per pound.
USDA-2023-24 (August 2023) vs 2022-23 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock- 94.13/85.64
Production-114.12/118.29
Import- 43.88/37.23
Consumption-116.94/110.48
Export- 43.86/37.05
Ending Stock- 91.60/94.13
INDIA
Opening Stock-11.70/8.60
Production-25.50/26
Import-1.50/1.75
Consumption-24.50/23.50
Export-2.20/1.15
Ending Stock-12/11.70
US
Opening Stock-3.70/3.75
Production-13.99/14.47
Import 0.01/-
Consumption-2.15/2.05
Export-12.50/12.80
Ending Stock-3.10/3.70
CHINA
Opening Stock-38.36/38.56
Production-27/30.70
Import-10/6.20
Consumption-37.50/37
Ending Stock-37.76/38.36
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-15.89/11.84
Production-13.25/13.90
Consumption-3.30/3.20
Export- 11.25/6.66
Ending Stock-14.61/15.89
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-1.55/1.93
Production-6.50/3.90
Import- 4.20/4.40
Consumption-10/8.60
Export-0.05/0.08
Ending Stock-2.20/1.55
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.98/2.33
Production-0.16/0.15
Import-8/6.80
Consumption-8/7.30
Ending Stock-2.14/1.98
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.03/1.02
Import-7/6.45
Consumption- 7/6.45
Ending Stock-1.03/1.03
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-4.74/4.96
Production-5.40/5.80
Export-5.90/6.20
Ending Stock- 4.43/4.74
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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