USDA Revises Down 2019-20 Global Cotton Production Estimate To 125.32 Million Bales

NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest June report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton production in 2019/20 to 125.32 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 125.45 million bales projected in May.

The world 2019/20 cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, slightly lower production, lower consumption and trade, and higher ending stocks.

Ending stocks for 2019/20 are projected 1.6 million bales higher than in May, due to a 1.1-million-bale increase in beginning stocks and a 660,000- bale decline in consumption.

Beginning stocks are higher largely due to larger 2018/19 production in India and lower 2018/19 consumption in China.

World consumption and imports in 2019/20 are projected lower largely due to a 500,000-bale decline in each variable’s forecast for China.

Lower exports are expected for Australia due to lower production, but higher expected exports from India are partly offsetting.

The 2019/20 US cotton supply and demand projections are unchanged from last month, with the exception of a 1-cent decline in the season-average upland farm price, to 64 cents per pound.

The 2018/19 US cotton balance sheet is unchanged.

USDA-2019-20 (June) vs 2018-19 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

WORLD

Opening Stock-77.53/80.94
Production-125.32/118.87
Import-45.74/42.46
Consumption-125.27/122.31
Export-44.75/42.10
Ending Stock-77.26/77.53

INDIA

Opening Stock-7.78/9.23
Production-28.50/26
Import-1.40/1.55
Consumption-25.30/24.80
Export-4.80/4.20
Ending Stock-7.58/7.78

US

Opening Stock-4.65/4.30
Production-22/18.37
Import-0.01/0.01
Consumption-3.10/3.10
Export-17/14.75
Ending Stock-6.40/4.65

CHINA

Opening Stock-34.37/38.02
Production-27.75/27.75
Import-10.50/8.75
Consumption-41/40
Ending Stock-31.49/34.37

BRAZIL

Opening Stock-12.21/8.66
Production-12/12.80
Consumption-3.60/3.50
Export-8.20/5.80
Ending Stock-12.48/12.21

PAKISTAN

Opening Stock-2.83/2.83
Production-8/7.70
Import-2.90/3
Consumption-10.70/10.60
Export-0.15/0.08
Ending Stock-2.86/2.83

BANGLADESH

Opening Stock-1.86/1.86
Production-0.14/0.14
Import-8.30/8
Consumption-8.30/8
Ending Stock-2.11/1.98

VIETNAM

Opening Stock-1.24/1.24
Import-7.60/7.10
Consumption-7.50/7.10
Ending Stock-1.34/1.24

AUSTRALIA

Opening Stock-1.20/3.04
Production-1.90/2.40
Export-1.80/4.20
Ending Stock-1.27/1.20

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)