NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest August report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled up its forecast for global cotton production in 2018-19 to 120.53 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 120.11 million bales projected in July.
The 2018/19 world production is projected 400,000 bales higher than in July with increase in expected crops in the United States, Argentina, and Turkey offsetting reduced crops in Uzbekistan, Australia, and Turkmenistan.
The agency has projected world 2018-19 ending stocks down 1 percent, due to a combination of lower beginning stocks and higher consumption offsetting higher production.
"Beginning stocks are reduced 450,000 bales, reflecting both lower production and higher consumption estimates for 2017/18," the report said.
While global consumption is estimated higher by 660,000 bales, mainly due to 300,000-bale increase for Pakistan, with smaller increases in Indonesia, Turkey, and other countries.
India
The agency has retained India's 2018-19 production estimate at 28.70 million bales.
However it raised its forecast for India's cotton exports at 4.50 million bales from 4.30 million bales projected in July.
On the other hand, India's beginning and ending stocks projections have been revised lower to 12.43 and 12.93 million bales, respectively as compared to 12.63 and 13.33 million bales estimated in July. However, import and consumption estimates for India have been kept unchanged at 1.50 million bales and 25.20 million bales, respectively.
United States
The report has revised up its estimate for US beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks compared with last month.
US production for the 2018 crop is estimated higher by 4 percent to 19.2 million bales, on this season’s first survey-based production forecast.
NASS’s survey indicates higher abandonment, but a higher average yield compared to last month’s expectations, the USDA report said.
"Beginning stocks are raised 400,000 bales due to lower-than-expected 2017/18 exports and domestic consumption, and 2018/19 exports are 500,000 bales higher, at 15.5 million bales. Ending stocks are 600,000 bales higher this month," it added.
The midpoint of the marketing-year-average price is unchanged from last month, at 75 cents per pound, the report said.
USDA-2018-19 (August)/(July)/2017-18 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-84.51/84.96/86.94
Production-120.53/120.11/122.76
Import-41.80/41.23/39.65
Consumption-127.62/126.95/120.77
Export-41.82/41.24/40.13
Ending Stock-77.10/77.84/88.21
INDIA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-12.43/12.63/11.13
Production-28.70/28.70/28.50
Import-1.50/1.50/1.80
Consumption-25.20/25.20/24.20
Export-4.50/4.30/4.75
Ending Stock-12.93/13.33/12.48
US (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-4.40/4/2.75
Production-19.24/18.50/20.92
Import-0.01/0.01/0.01
Consumption-3.40/3.40/3.35
Export-15.50/15/16
Ending Stock-4.60/4/4.20
CHINA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-37.79/37.69/48.42
Production-26.50/26.50/27.50
Import-7/7/5.30
Consumption-42.50/42.50/40
Ending Stock-28.64/33.12/41.17
BRAZIL (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-8.63/8.63/6.93
Production-9.50/9.50/8.90
Consumption-3.60/3.60/3.40
Export-5.30/5.40/4.20
Ending Stock-9.31/9.20/8.28
PAKISTAN (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-2.87/2.88/2.27
Production-8.50/8.50/8.20
Import-2.50/2.30/2.90
Consumption-11/10.70/10.40
Export-0.18/0.20/0.16
Ending Stock-2.67/2.76/2.78
BANGLADESH (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-1.86/1.86/1.63
Production-0.14/0.14/0.14
Import-8.10/8/7.40
Consumption-8/8/7.30
Ending Stock-2.08/1.98/1.86
VIETNAM (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-1.19/1.19/0.88
Import-7.70/7.70/6.90
Consumption-7.50/
Ending Stock-1.39/1.39/1.19
AUSTRALIA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
Opening Stock-2.86/3.06/2.19
Production-3.55/3.70/4.90
Export-4.30/4.40/3.90
Ending Stock-2.07/2.32/3.16
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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