NEW DELHI, Aug 12 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest August report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton production in 2022-23 to 117.01 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 120.07 million bales projected in July 2022.
Global 2022/23 production is forecast 3.1 million bales lower this month, and consumption is 800,000 bales lower, resulting in a decrease in projected ending stocks of 1.5 million bales.
In addition to the U.S. crop change, world production is reduced an additional 100,000 bales as extreme heat in Uzbekistan reduced yield prospects there.
World trade is 1.8 million bales lower this month, with reductions in U.S. exports and imports by China as the largest changes.
Projected imports are also lower this month for India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Turkey, and Bangladesh.
Consumption in 2022/23 is projected lower than a month ago in the United States, Pakistan, Vietnam, Turkey, and Bangladesh.
In this month’s 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections, beginning stocks are slightly larger, and a nearly 3-million-bale decrease in production results in lower exports, mill use, and ending stocks.
Beginning stocks are larger as estimated exports for 2021/22 are reduced 100,000 bales based on final Export Sales data and Census Bureau data through June. NASS’s first surveybased estimate of production for 2022/23 is 12.6 million bales—the lowest since 2009/10—with the crop reduced by projected historically high abandonment in the Southwest.
Exports are projected 2 million bales lower than in July and mill use is 200,000 lower.
Ending stocks are 600,000 bales lower, equating to 12.6 percent of expected use, 8 percentage points lower than in 2021/22, and the lowest stock/use ratio since 1924/25. The U.S. season-average price for upland cotton is forecast 2 cents higher this month at 97 cents/lb.
USDA-2022-23 (August 2022) vs 2021-22 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock-84.72/88.11
Production-117.01/115.96
Import-44.57/42.98
Consumption-119.09/119.22
Export-44.58/43.29
Ending Stock-82.77/84.72
INDIA
Opening Stock-8.54/11.94
Production-27.50/24.50
Import-1.50/1
Consumption-25/25
Export-3.70/3.90
Ending Stock-8.84/8.54
US
Opening Stock-3.50/3.15
Production-15.57/17.52
Import 0.01/0.01
Consumption-2.30/2.55
Export-12/14.65
Ending Stock-1.80/3.50
CHINA
Opening Stock-37.26/39.25
Production-27.50/27
Import-9/8.10
Consumption-37.50/37
Ending Stock-36.21/37.26
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-12.22/11.12
Production-13/12
Consumption-3.20/3.20
Export-9.30/7.73
Ending Stock-12.73/12.22
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-1.79/2.27
Production-6.20/6
Import-4.80/4.40
Consumption-10.90/10.80
Export-0.05/0.05
Ending Stock-1.82/1.79
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-2.44/2.90
Production-0.16/0.15
Import-8.40/7.90
Consumption-8.50/8.50
Ending Stock-2.49/2.44
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.08/1.12
Import-7/6.75
Consumption-6.90/6.80
Ending Stock-1.18/1.08
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-4.30/2.52
Production-5.50/5.50
Export-6.20/3.90
Ending Stock-3.78/4.30
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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