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USDA Revises Up 2018-19 Global Cotton Production Estimate To 121.97 Million Bales

12 Sep 2018 10:39 pm
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NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest September report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled up its forecast for global cotton production in 2018-19 to 121.97 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 120.53 million bales projected in August.

The 2018/19 world production is projected 1.44 million bales higher than in August with increase in expected crops in the China, Barazil and United States offsetting reduced crops in Australia and central Asia.

"Production is raised for China, Brazil, and the United States but is lowered for Australia," the report said.

World ending stocks are projected about 400,000 bales higher this month, at 77.5 million bales, equivalent to 61 percent of world consumption. If realized, this stocks/use ratio would be its lowest in 8 years, but higher than in virtually every other year before 2010/11.

The report said that larger 2018/19 world cotton production mostly offsets lower beginning stocks, and world ending stocks are only slightly higher this month.

The agency has lowered world 2018-19 beginning stocks projection at 83.79 million bales from 84.51 million bales estimated in August.

While global consumption is estimated higher by 300,000 bales, mainly due to higher expected use in India.


The agency has retained India's 2018-19 production estimate at 28.70 million bales. However, it lowered its forecast for India's cotton exports at 4.40 million bales from 4.50 million bales projected in August.

India's beginning and ending stocks projections have also been revised downwards to 11.58 and 11.88 million bales, respectively as compared to 12.43 and 12.93 million bales estimated in August. While, consumption in India has been estimated higher at 25.50 million bales than 25.20 million bales expected in August.

On the other hand, India's import estimates have been kept unchanged at 1.50 million bales.

United States

The report has revised up its estimates for US production, exports and ending stocks compared with last month.

US production for the 2018 crop is estimated higher by 447,000 bales to 19.68 million bales, with increases in the Southwest, Delta, and Southeast.

"Beginning stocks are revised 100,000 bales lower based on indicated stocks as of July 31, 2018, while domestic mill use is reduced slightly in 2017/18 based on recent activity," the USDA report said.

"The 2018/19 export forecast is raised 200,000 bales. Ending stocks are now projected higher at 4.7 million bales, or 25 percent of total use," it said.

The forecast range for the marketing-year average farm price is unchanged at 70 to 80 cents per pound, the report said.

USDA-2018-19 (September)/(August)/2017-18 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

WORLD (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

Opening Stock-83.79/84.51/83.79 Production-121.97/120.53/123.48 Import-41.79/41.80/40.92 Consumption-127.94/127.62/123.22 Export-41.80/41.82/40.71 Ending Stock-77.46/77.10/83.79

INDIA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

Opening Stock-11.58/12.43/10.78 Production-28.70/28.70/29 Import-1.50/1.50/1.70 Consumption-25.50/25.20/24.70 Export-4.40/4.50/5.20 Ending Stock-11.88/12.93/11.58

US (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

Opening Stock-4.30/4.40/2.75 Production-19.68/19.24/20.92 Import-0.01/0.01/Nil Consumption-3.40/3.40/3.23 Export-15.70/15.50/15.85 Ending Stock-4.70/4.60/4.30

CHINA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

Opening Stock-38.02/37.79/45.92 Production-27.50/26.50/27.50 Import-7/7/5.73 Consumption-42.50/42.50/41 Ending Stock-29.87/28.64/38.02

BRAZIL (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

Opening Stock-8.66/8.63/6.93 Production-10/9.50/9.22 Consumption-3.60/3.60/3.40 Export-5.50/5.30/4.17 Ending Stock-9.63/9.31/8.66

PAKISTAN (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

Opening Stock-2.83/2.87/2.32 Production-8.50/8.50/8.20 Import-2.50/2.50/3.30 Consumption-11/11/10.80 Export-0.18/0.18/0.16 Ending Stock-2.63/2.67/2.83

BANGLADESH (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

Opening Stock-1.86/1.86/1.63 Production-0.14/0.14/0.14 Import-8.10/8.10/7.60 Consumption-8/8/7.50 Ending Stock-2.08/2.08/1.86

VIETNAM (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

Opening Stock-1.19/1.19/0.88 Import-7.70/7.70/6.90 Consumption-7.50/7.50/6.60 Ending Stock-1.39/1.39/1.19

AUSTRALIA (In Million 480-Pound Bales)

Opening Stock-2.94/2.86/2.19 Production-3/3.55/4.90 Export-3.90/4.30/3.90 Ending Stock-2.01/2.07/3.16

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)

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