NEW DELHI, July 12 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest July report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled up its forecast for global cotton ending stocks in 2023-24 to 94.52 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 92.79 million bales projected in June 2023.
For the global 2023/24 cotton balance sheet, higher beginning stocks account for much of the 1.7- million-bale increase in ending stocks.
Beginning stocks are 1.1 million bales higher as a 1.8-millionbale increase in estimated 2022/23 production spread over India, Brazil, and Australia more than offsets a 675,000-bale increase in global consumption, and a 350,000-bale decrease in Argentina’s ending stocks. The Argentina change follows 10 years of historical balance sheet revisions.
Projected world 2023/24 production is 120,000 bales higher this month as expected larger crops in Pakistan and Afghanistan offset a reduced outlook for Australia and Argentina.
Consumption is projected 550,000 bales lower as reductions for China, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Vietnam more than offset improved prospects for Pakistan.
The U.S. 2023/24 cotton projections show lower exports and higher beginning and ending stocks.
Beginning stocks are 50,000 bales higher due to lower 2022/23 disappearance, and 2023/24 exports are reduced 250,000 bales due to reductions in projected world trade and U.S. market share.
U.S. planted area is 169,000 acres lower this month, as indicated in the June 30 Acreage report. Harvested area is up 117,000 acres however as rainfall in West Texas remains above median levels, and projected U.S. output remains at 16.5 million bales.
Ending stocks are forecast at 3.8 million bales, 300,000 bales higher than in June. The projected price received by U.S. upland cotton producers is 76 cents per pound this month, 1 cent lower than in June.
USDA-2023-24 (July 2023) vs 2022-23 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock- 93.95/86.04
Production-116.84/117.97
Import- 43.49/37.11
Consumption-116.45/109.77
Export- 43.51/37.56
Ending Stock- 94.52/93.95
INDIA
Opening Stock-11.60/8.60
Production-25.50/26
Import-1.50/1.75
Consumption-24.50/23.50
Export-2.20/1.25
Ending Stock-11.90/11.60
US
Opening Stock-3.25/3.75
Production-16.50/14.47
Import 0.01/-
Consumption-2.20/2.05
Export-13.75/12.90
Ending Stock-3.80/3.25
CHINA
Opening Stock-38.99/38.56
Production-27/30.70
Import-9.75/6.35
Consumption-37/36.50
Ending Stock-38.64/38.99
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-15.85/11.84
Production-13.25/13.70
Consumption-3.30/3.20
Export- 9.75/6.50
Ending Stock-16.07/15.85
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-1.50/1.93
Production-6.50/3.90
Import- 4.20/4.30
Consumption-10/8.60
Export-0.05/0.03
Ending Stock-2.15/1.50
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.88/2.33
Production-0.16/0.15
Import-8/6.60
Consumption-8/7.20
Ending Stock-2.04/1.88
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.03/1.02
Import-7/6.45
Consumption- 7/6.45
Ending Stock-1.03/1.03
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-4.34/4.96
Production-5.40/5.80
Export-5.80/6.60
Ending Stock- 4.13/4.34
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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