Mumbai, 16 Jun (Commoditiescontrol): Wheat exports from Russia are anticipated to experience a significant surge in June, reaching an estimated range of 2.8 to 3.2 million metric tons (MMT), according to the latest projections by SovEcon. This projection indicates a tripling of the overall export volume compared to the previous year, defying the typical seasonal slowdown in exports. Despite this increase, the country's wheat stocks remain at record-high levels, driving the continued active export of wheat.
Port data reveals that within a span of a week, Russia exported 0.77 MMT of wheat, exhibiting a notable increase from the previous week's export volume of 0.65 MMT. This trend highlights the ongoing momentum in export activities.
The robust export market is bolstered by the abundance of wheat stocks in primary agricultural regions. As reported by Rosstat, the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, wheat stocks in agricultural organizations at the beginning of May stood at 12.0 MMT, which is double the multi-year average. The ample availability of wheat contributes to the sustained export efforts.
SovEcon, a leading agricultural analytics firm, projects continued strong wheat exports in the upcoming season. The forecast for the 2023/24 period anticipates wheat exports to reach 45.7 MMT, indicating a 1.3 MMT increase compared to the current season. However, while the forecast remains positive, potential limiting factors must be considered.
One such factor that could potentially affect exports is the introduction of a price floor for Russian wheat, as reported by Russian media outlets. The Russian Agriculture Ministry has implemented a minimum price of $240 per metric ton (t) Free on Board (FOB) for Russian wheat. This measure aims to provide support to local farmers and stabilize domestic wheat prices. However, it may impact the competitiveness of Russian wheat in the global market.
With Russia's active wheat exports continuing to put pressure on the market, the effects are expected to reverberate across the international wheat trade. As the country maintains its high export volumes and takes advantage of its abundant wheat stocks, it will likely influence global wheat prices and market dynamics.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)
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