Mumbai, 27 May (Commoditiescontrol):In the wake of a slower soybean harvest, Paraná, Brazil's second-largest corn producer, is witnessing its slowest pace of corn planting in recorded history. Nevertheless, better-than-anticipated productivity in areas of Brazil's second corn crop ("safrinha") is predicted to compensate for the delay in planting, yielding record-breaking figures for the 2022/23 season.
This week, estimates released by Rally da Safra—a significant agricultural survey expedition organised by Agroconsult—predict that the harvest will reach a staggering 102.4 million tons, a 10% increase compared to the previous cycle. This increase is striking when considering the previous estimate made in March, which projected a harvest of 97.2 million tons.
According to André Debastiani, Rally da Safra coordinator, crop productivity is also projected to set a new record, achieving 102.1 sacks per hectare—an 11% surge from the previous harvest.
The exceptional crop yield in Mato Grosso and Goiás has buoyed national results. As a result, productivity in these states is expected to achieve an unprecedented 116 and 114 sacks per hectare, respectively, marking record-breaking performances.
Agroconsult also forecasted an unprecedented volume of corn exports. Brazil is predicted to export 54.1 million tons of corn—an increase of 11.3% compared to the previous record-setting cycle.
However, there are potential stumbling blocks on the path to achieving these impressive numbers, despite the optimistic export outlook. André Pessôa, CEO of Agroconsult, flagged "great pressure on the Brazilian logistics system until the end of the year" due to the safrinha corn harvest, which is anticipated to intensify in June.
Aside from full soybean warehouses and large volumes awaiting export, Pessôa noted that freight prices for corn are expected to rise this year. He warned that, although the 54 million tons of demand exists, "logistical problems resulting from a robust harvest could hinder the export estimate."
Despite planting delays, the estimates for corn production remain unaltered. However, the area designated for safrinha corn is expected to be less than initially anticipated. Agroconsult's revised projection now stands at 16.7 million hectares, similar to the 2021/22 cycle, down from its initial 17.4 million hectares prediction made in January.
Agroconsult attributes this reduction to the extended soybean harvest, which impacted the planting of the second corn crop. Paraná—Brazil's second-largest corn producer—saw its slowest planting in history. As a result, an estimated 6 million hectares of the second corn crop were planted outside the ideal period.
Nonetheless, André Debastiani reassured that "this does not necessarily mean a loss of productivity. It depends on the weather as we advance. In Paraná, for example, where 64% of the crop was planted outside the ideal period, no frost is predicted for the next 30 days."
In May alone, Brazil's corn exports totalled US$ 57.055 million, with a daily average of US$ 4.075 million and an average export quantity of 10,714 thousand tons daily. The average price per ton was US$ 380.40. However, compared to May 2022, there has been a significant decline in average daily export value and quantity, down by 76.1% and 78.3%, respectively, with a 10.3% increase in the average price per ton.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: +91-9820130172)
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