Mumbai, 12 May (Commoditiescontrol): European soft wheat production is expected to increase in the 2023/24 season, according to consultancy firm Strategie Grains, due to favourable growing conditions across much of the bloc. However, the firm has revised its forecasts for barley and maize crops downwards, partly due to drought in Spain.
The new forecast predicts that EU soft wheat output will reach 130.0 million tonnes in 2023/24, up from 128.9 million forecast in April, and almost 4% above the 2022/23 production level. This increase is attributed to regular rainfall in most of Europe since last month, which has helped crops, including in top EU grain producer France, recover from a dry winter.
However, Spain has not experienced the same rainfall as other parts of Europe, and the drought has been exacerbated by early heatwaves. As a result, Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for the next EU barley harvest to 49.9 million tonnes, below the 51.2 million tonnes produced in 2022/23. This reduction is mainly due to the "catastrophic situation in Spain," which is traditionally a major producer of barley.
Strategie Grains also reduced its maize production outlook for 2023/24 to 62.1 million tonnes from 62.7 million in March, despite the fact that this would still be 19% above the drought-hit level of 2022/23. This reduction is due to worsening conditions in Spain and heavy rain that has delayed planting in the eastern EU.
Furthermore, barley supplies will be curbed next season by lower-than-expected stocks after brisk French exports to China, according to Strategie Grains. The maize market will again be reliant on high imports to balance supply, whereas the EU faces another large wheat surplus.
Strategie Grains commented that there is a "dichotomy" in the market outlooks for Europe in 2023/24, with a "very heavy situation looming for wheat, but near-equilibrium for barley and maize." The consultancy firm expects wheat prices to increase due to the potential for tighter supplies, while barley and maize prices may remain stable due to expected lower demand.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)
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