|
Mumbai, April 22 (Commoditiescontrol):In 2022-23, the total wheat supply in Canada (excluding durum) is estimated at 31.6 Mt, a 28% increase from the previous year and 3% higher than the five-year average. Production is reported at 28.4 Mt, up by 46% from 2021-22, due to an increase in seeded area and a recovery in yields after the drought of 2021. The quality of the crop is excellent, with 93% of the crop rated within the top two tiers, according to the Canadian Grain Commission, and the average protein content was reported at 13.8%. Exports have been expanded by another 0.1 Mt, with Canadian wheat shipments up 62% compared to 2021-22 and 18% more than average. Domestic use remains steady at 8.2 Mt, and carry-out stocks were reduced to 3.8 Mt due to increased exports.
According to the USDA April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE), the global outlook for all wheat (including durum) points to larger supplies, increased demand, reduced trade, and a continued tightening of stocks. Overall supply is raised by 0.7 Mt to 1,061.1 Mt compared to last month, while 2.9 Mt increases total use to 796.1 Mt on higher overall consumption in India and an increase in feed and residual use in China and the EU. As a result, global exports for 2022-23 are reduced by 1.2 Mt to 212.7 Mt, and ending stocks are lowered by 2.1 Mt to 265.1 Mt with reductions in Ukraine, India, and the Philippines.
For the US, the forecasted supply for 2022-23 was raised slightly with decreased domestic use and increased imports. US supply is forecast at 67.3 Mt, with total production at 44.9 Mt. The export forecast remains unchanged at 29.9 Mt, and carry-out stocks are increased by 5% to 16.28 Mt but remain 14% below 2021-22 levels.
For 2023-24, total supplies in Canada are forecasted to increase by 4% year-over-year due to an increase in seeded area, reaching 32.8 Mt. Production is projected at 28.9 Mt, 2% more than the previous year and 10% more than the last five-year average. The Canadian Grain Commission will release the results of their farmers’ seeding intention survey at the end of April. As a result, the forecasted supply will be revised accordingly in the next report. As a result, domestic use is tentatively pegged at 8.3 Mt, relatively in line with average levels, while exports are forecasted to be 19.6 Mt.
Generally, field conditions in Europe are favourable to crop development, although some soil moisture deficits remain in France, southern Spain, and Italy. With timely rains, European production could reach 136.6 Mt, +1% compared to last year’s crop. However, production in the Black Sea region is expected to decline with lower seeding and harvested areas, with production for Russia currently pegged at 82.8 Mt and Ukraine’s at 20.2 Mt, down 13% and 20% compared to 2022-23, respectively. In the US, timely rains brought some relief to a large area seeded to hard red winter wheat, but the bulk of the crop in Kansas is still plagued by drought. Areas planted with soft red winter wheat are faring better. According to the International Grains Council (IGC), all wheat products out of the US isis forecast at 51.4 Mt, up 14% y/y.
For 2023-24, the average SK CWRS 1, 13.5% spot price, is reduced to $400/tonne with constriction in world trade and added competition from the US and Europe.
(By Commodities Control Bureau: 09820130172)
|
0 Comments 
Post Comment 
