Canadian Durum Wheat Production Rebounds in 2022-23, Exports Surge, but Competition Heats up in 2023-24.

Mumbai, April 22 (Commoditiescontrol): According to Statistics Canada (STC), the total supply of durum wheat for 2022-23 is estimated at 6.0 million tonnes (Mt), 57% more than the previous year. However, it is still 6% below the five-year average. Durum wheat production was reported at 5.4 Mt, which is 80% more than the previous year, thanks to an increase in area and a recovery in yields following the drought of 2021. Quality is reported to be very good, with 81% of the crop graded in the top two tiers, according to the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC), and the average protein content was 13.7%. Durum exports remain pegged at 4.8 Mt, with upward pressure as the export movement remains strong, double last year’s levels, and 35% more than the last five-year average.

The International Grains Council (IGC) reports that world production of durum for 2022-23 was raised marginally this month compared to last, standing at 32.7 Mt, for a total supply of 39.4 Mt, just 0.1 Mt lower than in 2021-22. Total consumption is pegged at 33.4 Mt, up 2% year-over-year (y/y), but 4% below average. The trade forecast was expanded by 0.2 Mt to 8.5 Mt, while stocks are expected to close the year at 5.9 Mt, with the major exporters’ share at 2.4 Mt, the lowest since 2007-2008. The average spot price for Saskatchewan (SK) No. 1 Canadian Western Amber Durum 13% (CWAD 1, 13%) for 2022-23 is forecast at $450/tonne.

For 2023-24, total supply is projected to remain relatively stable, just shy of 6.0 Mt, despite a decrease in seeded area, thanks to a continued recovery in yields. Production is projected at 5.5 Mt, unchanged from last year. Total domestic use is tentatively pegged at 0.8 Mt, in line with average levels, and carry-out stocks are forecast to increase to 0.8 Mt with a decline in international demand. Canadian exports are expected to drop 8% to 4.4 Mt due to increased competition from Europe and the US. The average spot price for SK CWAD 1, 13% in 2023-24 is forecast to decrease but remain historically strong at $410/tonne. Overall, the IGC projects world durum production to rise marginally in 2023-24 to 32.8 Mt, with increases in the US and Europe offsetting reductions in Kazakhstan, Turkey, Tunisia, and Algeria.

(By Commodities Control Bureau: 09820130172)