US Winter Crop Conditions Cause Concern for Global Wheat Markets

MUMBAI, April 20 (Commoditiescontrol): Reports of poor US winter crop conditions have been driving global wheat markets this week, alongside concerns about the future of the export corridor deal in Ukraine. The ongoing drought in some key producing regions has resulted in winter wheat crops being in very poor or poor condition in certain areas, such as Kansas and Oklahoma, two of the largest winter wheat growing states in the US.
According to the weekly crop progress report released on Monday by the USDA, 18% of the US winter wheat crop was in very poor condition, and 21% was in poor condition as of April 16th. While these figures are higher than the same point last year, the estimated area planted to wheat in the US for harvest 2023 is up 9% on the year and up 8% on the five-year average. This increase in planted area means that even if yields are affected slightly by drought, it’s likely output will remain high. However, if the current conditions persist, the quality of the crop may be impacted.
It's important to note that wheat in the US is currently in its vegetative stage, so it isn’t currently highly sensitive to moisture or temperature stresses. As the crop moves into its heading phase over the next few weeks, it will become more sensitive, and there could be a greater impact on yield potential. Therefore, US weather will remain an important watchpoint moving forward.
In the short-term, US markets are likely to react to updates on the winter wheat crop, but the next USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, due to be released in May, will provide a better idea of expected production for 2023/24. Despite the concerns, the outlook for US wheat production remains relatively high, with the increased planted area contributing to this positive outlook. (By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)