Week Ahead: Masoor Prices Pressured by Consistent Australian Supply and Sluggish Demand

Mumbai, June 17 (Commoditiescontrol): Prices for imported and domestic Masoor dropped in the leading markets this week due to lacklustre miller activity and poor offtake of Masoor dal. Factors contributing to the decline include the usual domestic arrivals and the mediocre quality supply of Australian Masoor at Kolkata port. In addition, government agencies were actively disposing of imported Masoor. Apart from this, the government did not intend to buy masoor for buffer stock.

A stock of around 200,000 tonnes of Australian Masoor is reportedly stocked at Kolkata port, with an additional supply of approximately 20,000-25,000 tonnes expected to arrive from Australia in early July.

Prices in the Kanpur market fell by Rs 25 per 100Kg for domestic Masoor due to low mill demand. Similarly, Madhya Pradesh-origin Masoor intended for Delhi delivery also softened by Rs 25 per 100Kg. The domestic Masoor market in Indore followed suit, easing by Rs 25 per 100Kg.

Masoor dal prices from domestic-origin Masoor at Katni decreased by Rs 75-100 to Rs 6,350-6,825 per 100 Kg due to sluggish offtake. The Canadian-origin Masoor in Mumbai also declined by Rs 50 to Rs 6,950-7,150 per 100 kg.






As of June 16, 2023, under the Price Support Scheme (PSS), Nafed has purchased 74,404 metric tons of Masoor during the 2023 Rabi season, at the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Rs 6,000 per quintal.



International Updates:

In April, Australia's Masoor exports saw a modest 2% decrease compared to the previous month, registering 159,734 MT. India was the primary recipient with an import of 104,163 MT, followed by Sri Lanka and the UAE importing 18,472 MT and 14,539 MT, respectively.

Contrastingly, Canada's red lentil exports marked a significant surge of 20% in April, totalling 102,490 MT. Turkey led the importers, purchasing 71,767 MT, while India and the UAE trailed, buying 15,592 MT and 6,857 MT, respectively.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) predicts a notable 36% dip in Masoor production in Australia, estimating the fiscal year 2023-24 yield at 906,000 tonnes.

The prices of Laird, Eston, and Richlea lentils in Western Canada have increased over the past month, whereas the prices for crimsons have decreased.

Pea and lentil cultivation in Canada is expected to decrease by 5 to 10%, while chickpea cultivation is projected to grow by 10%. Statistics Canada will release survey-based acreage estimates on June 28.

According to the technical chart, the price trend for Mumbai's Canadian Masoor (Lentil) is bearish, with the next support level anticipated at Rs 5,600. Click here

Trend:The upcoming week is likely to witness a persistent downward trend in Masoor prices, driven by a notable surge in supply from various sources. This includes the regular influx of lower-cost Australian Masoor at Kolkata port and the continuous domestic crop arrivals. The subpar performance of government procurement, coupled with NAFED's sustained sale of Masoor imported from the 2020 crop, is applying additional downward pressure on prices.

Meanwhile, consumer demand is being affected by the rise in temperatures due to postponed monsoons, resulting in a decrease in Masoor dal consumption in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Bengal. Contrary to original projections, there hasn't been a significant shift in demand from the more costly Tur dal to the Masoor dal. Adding to the complexity of the market, the Chati Masoor tender volume from Bangladesh has not met market projections.

Lastly, the Canadian Crimson variety, which had maintained a steady price trend for the last several weeks, is now showing indications of price decline. This may be attributed to a slowdown in Indian purchasing. Consequently, this trend has the potential to exert a bearish influence on Masoor prices in the near term.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)