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Week Ahead: Masoor Expected to Remain Weak on Australian Supply, Domestic Arrivals & Slow Procurement

13 May 2023 6:15 pm
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Mumbai, May 13 (Commoditiescontrol):During the week of May 13th, the Canada-origin crimson variety and Australia Masoor prices traded almost unchanged at major markets due to thin millers' trade activity in imported varieties. This was due to slow offtake in Masoor dal and regular domestic arrivals. Government agencies were also actively liquidating imported Masoor.

In addition, a fresh supply of Australia Masoor, around 1 lakh tonne from four vessels, arrived at the Kolkata port. Another vessel carrying 23000 MT is expected to arrive at Kolkata port by the end of May. The ready stock availability at Kolkata was approximately 1,20,000 tonne of Australia Masoor and 15,000 MT of Canada Masoor.

On the other hand, the domestic Masoor market saw a rise in trading prices. The Indore market reported a rise of Rs 100/100Kg in need-based mills purchasing for crushing purposes. Similarly, in Kanpur markets, the price of domestic-origin Masoor increased by Rs 75/100Kg. The prices of Madhya Pradesh-origin Masoor for Delhi delivery also increased by Rs 25/100Kg.

However, due to sluggish offtake, Masoor dal prices from Canadian-origin Masoor in Mumbai remained weak by Rs 150 at Rs 7,000-7,200/100Kg. On the other hand, the commodity produced from domestic-origin Masoor at Katni witnessed a gain of Rs 50 at Rs 6,400-6,900/100Kg on fresh need-based offtake.







As of May 13th, 2023, Nafed has procured 52,169 metric tons of Masoor at the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Rs 6,000 per quintal under the Price Support Scheme (PSS) during the 2023 Rabi season.



International Updates:

Lentil stocks were pegged at only 900,000 tonnes by StatsCan, even lower than 2021/22 and the smallest since 2015/16. In reality, lentil stocks aren’t likely that low but are still considered tight. While both red and green lentil inventories are quite low, higher prices for greens suggest those supplies are relatively scarcer than reds.

The low lentil supplies have provided solid prices through much of 2022/23, but some seasonal pressure is still possible ahead of the next harvest. For red lentils, Australia provides an alternative source for importing countries but for greens, there’s no other meaningful substitute for the low Canadian supplies. That’s another reason why green lentil prices have been performing better than reds.

Export shipments of red lentils from Canada posted significant declines, slumping compared to the previous month in March. Total shipments throughout the month reached 85,279 metric tons, down 27% from the previous month's total of 116,479. So far export sales have amounted to 1,044,827 MT, up from 550,996 during the previous marketing year. In the month, India was the most important destination, taking 32,750 MT. United Arab Emirates was the second most important importer buying 26,530 MT, followed by Turkey at 12,736 MT.

As per technical chart - Kolkata Masoor (Lentil) - Correction underway / Next support at Rs 5,500. Click here

Trend: The Masoor market is expected to remain weak due to several reasons, including surplus domestic crops, limited demand for Masoor dal, and government agencies selling imported Masoor. Fresh supplies of Australian Masoor, amounting to 1 lakh tonne from 4 vessels, are also expected to create further pressure. Moreover, government procurement is slow, with only 52,000 MT procured from an estimated crop of 15.99 lakh tonnes (second advance estimate). However, prices could see some support once domestic arrivals slow down and demand increases seasonally from June onwards. If the government replaces mid-day meals with Masoor, as suggested by IPGA, it could provide additional support to the market. The overall trend of Masoor prices in the near future will depend on various factors, including government procurement, international prices, and the monsoon performance in the Kharif season.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)


       
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