NEW DELHI, Jan 12 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest January 2024 report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled up its forecast for global production estimates in 2023-24 to 398.98 million tonnes, compared to 398.98 million tonnes projected in December 2023.
Global 2023/24 soybean production is raised 0.1 million tonnes to 399.0 million tonnes as higher production forecasts for Argentina, the United States, Russia, China, Paraguay, and Bolivia are offset by lower Brazil production.
Abundant early-season rainfall improved yield prospects for Argentina and Paraguay, raising production 2 million tonnes to 50 million tonnes and 0.3 million tonnes to 10.3 million tonnes, respectively.
China’s soybean crop is expected to increase 0.3 million tonnes to 20.8 million tonnes on reports from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Soybean production for Russia is raised 0.4 million tonnes to 6.8 million tonnes on a higher yield.
Conversely, soybean production for Brazil is forecast at 157.0 million tonnes, down 4 million tonnes from last month and down 3.0 million tonnes from last year’s record crop of 160 million tonnes. Reduced rainfall in the Center West region and northeastern States lowered yield potential.
Another notable oilseed change includes lower global sunflower seed production, down 1.3 million tons, on lower output for the EU, Argentina, and Russia.
Global soybean crush for 2023/24 is nearly unchanged, with lower crush for Brazil mostly offset by higher crush for Argentina, India, Bolivia, Egypt, and Thailand.
Soybean meal trade is unchanged as higher exports for Argentina, India, and Bolivia offset lower Brazilian shipments.
Global soybean exports for 2023/24 are increased 0.7 million tonnes to 170.9 million tonnes, with higher exports for Paraguay and Russia. Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at 114.6 million tonnes, up 0.4 million tonnes, mainly on higher stocks for the United States and Argentina partly offset by lower Brazilian stocks
U.S. oilseed production for 2023/24 is estimated at 122.4 million tonnes, up 0.9 million tonnes from last month.
Higher soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower seed crops are partly offset by lower peanuts and cottonseed. Soybean production is estimated at 4.2 billion bushels, up 35 million, led by increases for Illinois, Missouri, and North Dakota. Harvested area is estimated at 82.4 million acres, down 0.4 million from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 50.6 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels.
With slightly lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are up 31 million bushels from last month.
The soybean export and crush forecasts are unchanged. With higher supplies and slightly lower residual, ending stocks are projected at 280 million bushels, up 35 million.
The soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased imports and biofuel use, and lower exports and food, feed, and other industrial use. Lower food, feed, and other industrial use is partly offset by higher imports and consumption of canola oil.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is projected at $12.75 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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