Mumbai, 21 Nov (Commoditiescontrol):In a significant development, Canada's canola production is projected to decrease by 7% for the 2023-24 crop year, with an estimated output of 17.4 million tonnes. This forecast, derived from satellite imagery and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) technology, signals a notable drop from the five-year average of 18.6 million tonnes. The decline is largely due to reduced moisture levels during the growing season, especially in the southern regions of Western Canada.
Provincial Overview
Alberta: Faces a marginal yield reduction of 1% from the previous year.
Saskatchewan: Witnesses a substantial 14% yield drop.
Key Yield and Seeding Data
Yield: The mid-harvest yield is pegged at 1.96 tonnes per hectare, the lowest in the last decade, barring the 2021-22 drought year.
Seeded Area: Sees a modest 3% rise to 8.9 million hectares.
Supply Dynamics and Crop Quality
Overall Supply: The total supply is estimated at 19.0 million tonnes, a decline from the previous year's 20.1 million tonnes.
Quality Insights: According to the Canadian Grain Commission Harvest Sample Survey, 97% of the crop is graded No. 1, indicating a predominantly high-quality yield.
Oil and Protein Content
Oil Content: Averages at 43.3%, with a variable range between 33% and 52.3%.
Protein Levels: Stand at an average of 21.8%, spanning from 15.5% to 29.6%.
Consumption and Export Trends
Domestic Consumption: Forecasted to reduce by 4%, impacted by tighter supply constraints.
Export Projections: Expected to fall to 7.7 million tonnes due to decreased production and heightened global competition.
Economic Outlook and Market Trends
Carry-Out Stocks: Anticipated to be a tight 1.0 million tonnes, reflecting a 34% decline from last year and 60% below the five-year average.
Price Trends: The forecasted average price for No. 1, track Vancouver, is set at $715 per tonne, a downturn from last year's $857 and the five-year average of $729.
Critical Monitoring Factors
Global vegetable oil price volatility.
The balance between commercial and export buying patterns.
Chinese market's demand trajectory for canola.
Crop developments in South America.
The effect of international conflicts on oilseed and related product demand.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)
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