NEW DELHI, Feb 8 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest February 2024 report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global ending stocks in 2023-24 to 83.70 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 84.38 million bales projected in January 2024.
World 2023/24 cotton ending stocks are nearly 700,000 bales lower this month, as lower beginning stocks and production reduce supplies.
World consumption is virtually unchanged as increases in China and Vietnam are offset by lower consumption in Turkey, the United States, and Thailand. Beginning stocks are 250,000 bales lower than in January largely due to a downward revision in Argentina’s 2022/23 cotton crop.
Projected 2023/24 world cotton production is 355,000 bales lower this month, with cuts in Australia and Benin partly offset by smaller increases elsewhere.
World trade is nearly 200,000 bales lower as a 500,000-bale increase in China’s imports is more than offset by reductions for India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Turkey. Exports are higher for the United States, Burkina Faso, and Turkey, and lower for Brazil, Argentina, and Australia.
The 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet has lower ending stocks relative to last month, with higher exports and lower mill use, while production is unchanged.
The export forecast is raised 200,000 bales to 12.3 million based on a strong pace of shipments and sales to date. Similarly, projected mill use is reduced 150,000 bales as U.S. domestic spinning activity remains low. Ending stocks are now estimated at 2.8 million bales, equivalent to 20 percent of total disappearance.
The upland cotton marketing year average price received by producers is projected at 77 cents per pound, 1 cent higher than in January.
USDA- 2023-24 (Feb 2024) vs 2022-23 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock- 82.97/76.42
Production-112.82/116.26
Import- 42.88/37.69
Consumption-112.46/111.16
Export- 42.87/36.96
Ending Stock- 83.70/82.97
INDIA
Opening Stock-11.82/8.40
Production-25/26.30
Import-1/1.73
Consumption-23.70/23.50
Export-1.60/1.10
Ending Stock-12.52/11.82
US
Opening Stock-4.25/4.05
Production-12.43/14.47
Import 0.01/
Consumption-1.75/2.05
Export-12.30/12.77
Ending Stock-2.80/4.25
CHINA
Opening Stock-37.40/38.06
Production-27.50/30.70
Import-12/6.23
Consumption-37/37.50
Ending Stock-39.85/37.40
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-5.76/3.88
Production-14.56/11.72
Consumption-3.30/3.20
Export- 11.20/6.66
Ending Stock-5.84/5.76
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-1.53/1.93
Production-6.70/3.90
Import- 3.60/4.50
Consumption-9.80/8.70
Export-0.08/0.10
Ending Stock-1.95/1.53
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.73/2.28
Production-0.16/0.15
Import-7.50/7
Consumption-7.80/7.70
Ending Stock-1.59/1.73
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.05/1.02
Import-6.80/6.47
Consumption-6.80/6.45
Ending Stock-1.05/1.05
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-4.77/4.96
Production-4.80/5.80
Export-5.65/6.17
Ending Stock- 4.11/4.77
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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