NEW DELHI, Oct 12 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest October report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has once again scaled down its forecast for global cotton ending stocks in 2023-24 to 79.92 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 89.96 million bales projected in September 2023.
World 2023/24 beginning stocks of cotton are 10.3 million bales lower this month than in September, a decline to 82.8 million, entirely attributable to a permanent accounting change in the balance sheet for Brazil back to 2000/01.
Ending stocks for the 2023/24 world balance sheet are also down by 10 million bales because of this change.
To better account for the change in timing of Brazil’s harvest, USDA has shifted ahead by one year its 2000/01-2022/23 production estimates. Until this change, USDA’s estimated Brazilian and global ending stocks were significantly inflated because they reflected Brazil’s entire year’s production.
In an additional production change, the estimate for what is now USDA’s 2023/24 Brazil crop was increased 160,000 bales to 14.56 million, reflecting an October 10 revision by Brazil’s Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (CONAB).
Other changes in the world 2023/24 cotton balance sheet are small. Production is 210,000 bales higher than in September as larger crops in Brazil, Argentina, and Tanzania offset reductions in the United States, Australia, and Greece. World consumption and trade are virtually unchanged, down 89,000 bales and down 35,000 bales, respectively.
The 2023/24 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month.
Production is 315,000 bales lower at 12.8 million bales, down 2 percent from a month earlier as lower yields in Texas offset gains elsewhere.
With production projected lower and exports down 100,000 bales to 12.2 million, ending stocks are reduced 200,000 bales. The 2023/24 season-average price for upland cotton is forecast unchanged from last month at 80 cents per pound, nearly 5 cents below the final 2022/23 price of 84.8 cents.
USDA- 2023-24 (Oct 2023) vs 2022-23 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock- 82.84/76.54
Production-112.60/116.27
Import- 43.23/37.18
Consumption-115.79/110.87
Export- 43.24/37
Ending Stock- 79.92/82.84
INDIA
Opening Stock-11.72/8.60
Production-25/26
Import-1.30/1.73
Consumption-24/23.50
Export-2/1.10
Ending Stock-12.02/11.72
US
Opening Stock-4.25/4.05
Production-12.82/14.47
Import 0.01/-
Consumption-2.15/2.05
Export-12.20/12.77
Ending Stock-2.80/4.25
CHINA
Opening Stock-37.40/38.06
Production-27/30.70
Import-10/6.23
Consumption-37.50/37.50
Ending Stock-36.80/37.40
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-5.76/3.88
Production-14.56/11.72
Consumption-3.30/3.20
Export- 11.80/6.66
Ending Stock-5.24/5.76
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-1.53/1.93
Production-6.50/3.90
Import- 4.20/4.50
Consumption-10/8.70
Export-0.08/0.10
Ending Stock-2.15/1.53
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.93/2.33
Production-0.16/0.15
Import-7.70/6.55
Consumption-7.70/7.10
Ending Stock-2.09/1.93
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.05/1.02
Import-6.90/6.47
Consumption-6.90/6.45
Ending Stock-1.05/1.05
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-4.78/4.96
Production-5.10/5.80
Export-5.70/6.16
Ending Stock- 4.37/4.78
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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