Mumbai, 25 May (Commoditiescontrol):In its latest report, the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) has provided an insightful forecast for Canada's lentil market in the upcoming year. According to the report, Canada's lentil supply for the 2022-23 period is projected to be approximately 2.6 million metric tonnes (Mt), with exports expected to see a significant increase compared to the previous year, reaching 2.3 Mt. The primary export destinations for Canadian lentils continue to be Turkey, India, and the United Arab Emirates. However, analysts anticipate a decline in carry-out stocks, predicted to fall to 0.1 Mt.
One notable highlight from the report is the projected decline in the average price of lentils in Canada. After reaching record levels in the 2021-22 crop year, the prices are expected to fall sharply due to the global increase in supply, despite strong imports from Turkey. Additionally, the report suggests that large green lentil prices will command a $365 per tonne premium over red lentil prices throughout the entire crop year, compared to the $325 per tonne premium observed in 2021-22. Notably, Saskatchewan's large green lentil farm gate prices remained unchanged in April, while red lentil farm gate prices experienced a modest increase of $15 per tonne.
Looking ahead to the 2023-24 crop year, the AAFC report reveals that Canadian producers intend to reduce the area seeded to lentils by 8%, bringing it down to 1.61 million hectares. Saskatchewan is expected to account for 87% of the lentil-growing area, with the remaining portion distributed between Alberta and Manitoba. Although production is forecasted to rise by 4% to 2.4 Mt, overall supply is projected to decrease slightly below the 2.6 Mt mark. Consequently, exports are expected to decline, with a lower supply resulting in an estimated 2.1 Mt of lentils being exported. Additionally, carry-out stocks are forecasted to increase to 0.2 Mt.
The AAFC report also anticipates that the average price of lentils in 2023-24 will be lower than the previous year. This projection is based on assumptions of average grade distribution and lower prices for No.1 red and green lentil grades. Meanwhile, in the United States, the USDA predicts a 21% decrease in the area seeded to lentils for 2023-24, with a total of 0.52 million acres (Mac) expected to be dedicated to lentil cultivation. This reduction is primarily attributed to a decline in the area seeded in Montana.
As the new crop year approaches, these forecasts provide valuable insights for lentil producers, exporters, and market participants, allowing them to make informed decisions in response to the expected changes in Canada's lentil market.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +9198201 30172)
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