NEW DELHI, July 12 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest July report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global soybean production estimates in 2023-24 to 405.31 million tonnes, compared to 410.70 million tonnes projected in June 2023.
Global oilseed production is estimated to increase 1.5 million tonnes to 539.7 million on higher sunflower seed, soybean, and rapeseed production.
Sunflower Seed and rapeseed production is raised for Ukraine reflecting higher area in government planting progress reports.
Soybean production is increased for Canada based on the latest plantings report from Statistics Canada. Partly offsetting is lower rapeseed production for the EU, down 0.8 million tons to 20.2 million based on dry conditions especially in France and Germany.
Global soybean trade for 2023/24 is down 3.1 million tons to 169.3 million as reduced U.S. exports are paired with lower imports for China, Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey, and Thailand.
China’s imports are lowered 1.0 million tons to 99.0 million due to higher carrying supplies from increased imports in the prior marketing year. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 2.4 million tons to 121.0 million mainly on lower U.S. stocks.
U.S. oilseed production for 2023/24 is projected at 127.6 million tonnes, down 5.6 million tonnes from last month with reductions for soybeans and sunflower seed, partly offset by higher canola and peanuts.
Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 210 million bushels on lower harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 83.5 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is down 4.0 million acres from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 52.0 bushels per acre.
With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, 2023/24 soybean supplies are reduced by 185 million bushels. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels reflecting a lower soybean meal domestic disappearance forecast.
Soybean exports are reduced 125 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels on lower U.S. supplies and lower global imports.
With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 300 million bushels, down 50 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.40 per bushel, up $0.30 from last month.
The soybean meal price is projected at $375.00 per short ton, up $10.00. The soybean oil price forecast of 60.0 cents per pound is up 2 cents.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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