MUMBAI(Commoditiescontrol): In a surprise turn of events, USDA raised US 2017/18 cotton production forecast to 21.76 million 480lb bales from previous forecast of 20.55 million bales.
Production is raised 1.2 million bales, with notable increases in the Southwest and Delta. (Full Report)
Despite Hurricane Harvey impacting Texas and surrounding regions, with various market estimates of crop loss of around 0.5 million to 0.7 million bales, including quality degradation.
However, USDA has not full surveyed the impacted area as it specifically mentioned in the crop report.
According to USDA, “Hurricane Harvey made landfall on Friday, August 25 near Rockport, Texas. The resulting rainfall caused flooding in parts of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. As a result, data collection activities for the September Crop Production report were impacted in these areas and the full impact of this weather event may not be fully reflected in this report.
Therefore, NASS will collect harvested acreage information in both Texas and Louisiana for a number of crops in preparation for the October Crop Production report. Harvested acreage information will be collected from all producers surveyed in Louisiana for corn, Upland cotton, rice, sorghum, soybeans, and sugarcane; and in Texas for corn, Upland cotton, alfalfa hay, other hay, rice, sorghum, and soybeans.
Hurricane Irma made landfall on Sunday, September 10. NASS will also collect harvested acreage information in preparation for the October Crop Production report in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Harvested acreage will be collected in these four States from all producers surveyed for Upland cotton, peanuts, and soybeans.”
Both harvested and planted area are raised, with abandonment slightly higher this month. Beginning stocks are revised 50,000 bales lower based on indicated stocks as of July 31, 2017, exports are raised 700,000 bales, while domestic use is unchanged.
US Ending stocks are forecast 200,000 bales higher than the month before, at 6.0 million, or 33 percent of total use. The forecast range for the marketing year average farm price is reduced 1 cent on each end, giving a range of 54 to 66 cents per pound.
Indian cotton production witnessed upward revision and now is forecast at 38.4 million 170kg bales from previous month’s forecast at 37.1 million 170kg bales due to increase in planting area to 12.1 million hectares as of Sept 7 from 10.2 million hectares in 2016 and favourable weather conditions during the monsoon season. (Full Report)
With slightly lower 2017/18 world beginning stocks and slightly higher consumption only partially offsetting a 3.4-million-bale increase in production, world ending stocks are raised 2.4 million bales this month.
Beginning stocks are reduced for India and Australia, offsetting an increase for Brazil. Production is raised for several countries, led by the United States and India.
Larger production is also forecast this month for Brazil, Australia, Mexico, and Turkey. World trade is revised upwards by 600,000 bales.
World ending stocks are projected at 92.5 million bales, 3.0 million above their 2016/17 level, but unchanged from a year earlier as a share of consumption.
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(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015534)
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