Week ahead: Tur prices may continue to rise due to a shortage of ready stock and supply

Mumbai, May 20 (Commoditiescontrol): For the week concluding on May 20th, 2023, the cost of imported Tur from Burma and Africa maintained its rising trajectory. This surge is primarily due to higher CNF quotes from Myanmar/Africa, an existing shortage of readily available imported Tur, the Tamil Nadu civil supply tender, a delay in the southwest monsoon, according to IMD-Skymet, and increased purchasing from consumers fulfilling immediate needs. In addition, Tur dal's high offtake further fueled this trend.

Specifically, the forward deal price for the Lemon Tur , for ready delivery in Chennai, was quoted at Rs 9,000. However, prices were slightly higher for June and July deliveries at Rs 9,075-9,100 and Rs 9,350-9,375, respectively. The CNF Chennai price of Burma Lemon Tur, which recorded a gain of $65 to reach $1150.

Meanwhile, the price of desi Tur at the Akola market increased by Rs 450 over the week, reaching Rs 9,575-9,600/100 kg. The price escalation was driven by rising demand from local and outstation mills, backed by a robust uptake of Tur dal. Similarly, Tur prices in Gulbarga's mandi trade rose by Rs 550, to Rs 9,300-9,650/100 kg, depending on the quality.

The price of Tur dal also climbed at Akola markets, with the new crop Tur increasing by Rs 700/quintal. Gulbarga saw a similar trend, with Tur dal prices rising by Rs 900-1000/100kg. Prices at Katni escalated by Rs 600/100Kg as well.

The demand surge for Tur dal processed from Burma, Sudan, and Mozambique origin Tur led to a price increase of Rs 600/100Kg. However, despite the price rise, Tur dal processed from African origin Tur remains considerably cheaper than its domestically processed counterpart.



The prices of African-origin Tur from Sudan, Malawi, and Mozambique (specifically the Gajiri-white variety) have seen a rise of Rs 350-650 per 100Kg. This increase can be attributed to a diminishing stock of African Tur and virtually non-existent supply from Sudan due to the ongoing civil war.



According to information from Burma traders, there is an availability of approximately 40,000-50,000 tonnes of Tur stock. The majority of this stock is held by influential stakeholders, who are disinclined to liquidate at the current price, anticipating further increases due to a shortfall in Indian production. However, given the current CNF prices for Chennai, a significant import disparity exists, which is discouraging further imports. In the meantime, the Burmese kyat has remained stable against the US dollar at a rate of 2,850 Kyat/dollar.



As per technical chart - Akola Desi Tur - Trending higher / Next Resistance at Rs 10,000. Click here.

As per technical chart - Burma Tur (CNF $) - Trending higher / Next resistance at $1,144. Click here.

Trend: Despite governmental measures, Tur prices are expected to stay robust owing to decreased imports and diminished domestic production. High import costs have constrained Tur supplies at Chennai-Mumbai warehouses, and inadequate crop yields have reduced market arrivals and domestic stocks. This scenario has stimulated traders to restock their inventory, escalating demand. At the same time, stockists, traders, and farmers hoarding raw Tur stocks have manifested an artificial scarcity. This could result in mills shifting from Tur processing to other pulses due to Tur unavailability, potentially leading to Tur dal shortages and subsequent price inflation. Conversely, government measures compelling stockists and traders to liquidate their stock, and a notable price increase could help in demand equilibrium. This might encourage consumers to consider more cost-effective pulses, potentially reducing Tur demand and stabilising the market.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)