MUMBAI, March 18 (Commoditiescontrol): Burma & Africa origin imported Tur along with domestic variety Tur extended prices rise during the week ended on March 18th, 2023 amid regular mills buying to fulfil the immediate need for crushing operations and less arrivals at producing centers due to adverse weather conditions.
Burmese-origin Tur prices closed higher by Rs 300/100Kg due to shortage as supply from Burma witness was thin and increased landed costs of upcoming shipments.
Domestic variety Tur price moved up by Rs 150 at Rs 8,625-8,650/100Kg at Akola in Bilty trade on local & outstaion need based mills purchase and less domestic arrivals. Also, it traded up by Rs 100-200 at Rs 8,000-8,500 at Gulbarga, as per quality on need-based mills buying support.
Firm trend in prices Tur dal was observed at Akola & Katni markets. Prices of domestic Tur dal processed from new crop Tur at Akola traded higher by Rs 200/quintal & at Katni, rose by Rs 400. But at Gulbarga, processed Tur dal prices were unchanged.
Tur dal prices processed from Burma, Sudan, and Mozambique origin quoted unchanged on thin offtake despite deep discount to domestic Tur dal. Overall, the offtake in Tur dal was slow at higher levels.
The pace of rise in Tur dal price was relatively lower than that of raw Tur prices, leading to the drop in crush margins for millers. So in order to maintain positive crush margin of Tur, there is a need fo either raw Tur prices to fall, or prices of Tur dal to rise in the near term.
Meanwhile, all variety of Africa origin, such as Arusha, Malawi, Sudan and Mozambique (gajri & white) gained by Rs 50-150/100Kg on regular mill demand, which was materialised due to the need to meet immediate crushing requirements. While supply from Africa has practically depleted due to less balance stock. Sudan's fresh crop arrival is set to begin in March-April, although the landed cost will be higher because the current C&F quotes for Nhava Sheva are around $980-$990.
Stockists from Burma and India have been purchasing the Tur Lemon variety at the Yangon market. According to a local trader in Burma, the stockists are holding most of the 2023 crop, which is around two lakh tonnes. Consequently, the prices have gone up to $1015 per tonne CNF Chennai, with an increase of $45. The exchange rate between Kyat, the currency of Burma, and the US dollar remains unchanged at 2850 Kyat to the dollar, the same as the previous week.
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As per the technical chart - Akola - Desi Tur - May attempt a counter-trend decline from resistance (Rs 8,400); next support at Rs 8,000.
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As per the technical chart - Mumbai Lemon Tur - Trending higher / Next resistance at Rs 8,000.
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As per the technical chart - Burma Tur (CNF$) - A breakout above resistance at $970 may trigger another leg higher toward $1100 - Stay tuned.
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Trend: Tur prices are expected to decrease by Rs 100-200/100Kg in the following week because of limited mill purchases at high rates and slow demand for Tur dal. Additionally, trade volume is likely to decrease in the coming days due to the approaching financial year-end and the tight liquidity situation causing financial constraints. The Hyderabad Commissioner of Civil Supplies has instructed that stockists of Tur and Urad disclose their inventory levels to evaluate the availability and take necessary action concerning the rising prices of these commodities. Although the possibility of government intervention may cause concerns in the market, any such intervention is likely to have only a short-term impact on prices. The continued surge in Tur prices is underpinned by strong fundamentals, such as lower domestic production, sluggish domestic arrivals, and higher landed costs for Burma and Sudan Tur. Furthermore, the involvement of government agencies and bulk buyers is expected to boost the ongoing price rally.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)
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