NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest November report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global cotton production in 2019/20 to 121.94 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 124.77 million bales projected in October.
World production is reduced nearly 3.0 million bales, with reductions occurring primarily in the United States, Pakistan, India, and China. There are also smaller declines in the production estimates for Turkey and Turkmenistan.
World trade is forecast 1.1 million bales higher, with higher imports by Turkey, Pakistan, and India more than offsetting a 200,000-bale decline in Indonesia.
Higher exports are projected from Brazil, Malaysia, Benin, Greece, India, and several smaller countries.
With little change from the previous month in beginning stocks or consumption, world 2019/20 cotton ending stocks are projected nearly 3.0 million bales lower this month. At 80.8 million bales, world ending stocks in 2019/20 are forecast nearly unchanged from 2018/19.
This month’s 2019/20 US cotton estimates include lower production and ending stocks due to a smaller crop in the Southwest. While the US production forecast is reduced 4 percent, to 20.8 million bales, domestic mill use and exports are unchanged.
US ending stocks are now 900,000 bales lower at 6.1 million but, at 31 percent, are still forecast at their highest share of use since 2008/09. The marketing-year average price received by upland producers is forecast at 61 cents per pound, 5 percent (3 cents) above the October forecast, but 13 percent lower than the final 2018/19 price of 70.3 cents.
USDA-2019-20 (November) vs 2018-19 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock-80.55/80.94
Production-121.94/118.80
Import-44.03/41.42.50
Consumption-121.49/120.29
Export-44.03/41.28
Ending Stock-80.80/80.55
INDIA
Opening Stock-10.01/9.23
Production-30/26.50
Import-1.80/1.80
Consumption-24.50/24
Export-4.10/3.51
Ending Stock-13.21/10.01
US
Opening Stock-4.85/4.20
Production-20.82/18.37
Import-0.01/----
Consumption-3/2.98
Export-16.50/14.76
Ending Stock-6.10/4.85
CHINA
Opening Stock-35.67/37.99
Production-27.25/27.75
Import-9.50/9.64
Consumption-39.50/39.50
Ending Stock-33.75/35.67
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-11.78/8.66
Production-11.60/12.52
Consumption-3.40/3.40
Export-8.60/6.01
Ending Stock-11.41/11.78
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-2.50/2.83
Production-7/7.60
Import-3.60/2.85
Consumption-10.70/10.70
Export-0.10/0.06
Ending Stock-2.27/2.50
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.78/1.86
Production-0.14/0.14
Import-7.30/7.20
Consumption-7.40/7.40
Ending Stock-1.81/1.78
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.19/1.29
Import-7.50/6.90
Consumption-7.40/7
Ending Stock-1.29/1.19
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-1.57/3.04
Production-1.20/2.20
Export-1.70/3.63
Ending Stock-1.04/1.57
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