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WEEKLY Jeera: Prices Likely To Fall Ahead

15 Jul 2019 9:23 am
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MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - During the week, cumin/jeera arrivals in Unjha and Jodhpur markets stood at 35,600 bags. Modal price in Physical market remained stable at INR 155-156 per kg levels as the arrival and domestic demand are constant and sufficient.

However, in NCDEX August Futures, cumin price on 12th July 2019 stood at INR 17,795 per quintal levels, as compared to INR 17,355 per quintal levels on 5th July 2019. The increase can be attributed to overseas demand especially from China. Considering the same, price in physical markets may increase in coming days.

Currently, overseas demand for Indian cumin is low as most of the destinations covered their requirement during the season (March to May).

As per the information from tradesources, china’s cumin crop harvested during June 2019 and the quality of the crop reportedwell. Due to the same, export of Indian cumin to China is in slower phase at present.

Also, most of the shipments gone to European countries are bounced back due to high pesticide residue content as per the information from major exporters.

Considering the fact, coupled with lower domestic demand, the price of cumin in India is expected to fall by INR 250-300 per quintal in coming days. However, farmers hold stock due to anticipation on higher prices as like the previous year post July.


Rainfall status


Farmers in Gujarat are commencing Kharif sowing in full swing. Similarly, the rainfall supported the process well.

Location

27 June – 03 July

20 – 26 June

13 – 19 June

Actual (in mm)

Normal (in mm)

Actual (in mm)

Normal (in mm)

Actual (in mm)

Normal (in mm)

Ahmedabad

26.7

55.5

18

38.3

32.2

18.6

Banaskantha

9.9

28.6

34.4

20.4

34

15.6

Mahesana

26.4

46.2

7.7

23.6

70.9

20.3

Saurashtra and Kuch

18.4

43.8

11.9

35.5

37.2

19.8

Patan

31.4

31.6

12.8

20.2

39.7

16.8

Source: IMD

Jeera NCDEX August 2019 contract (Closing price on July 8, 2019 = Rs. 17380/100 kg)

Jeera has been coming off the peak of Rs. 18205 (16th May) and touched a low of Rs. 17100(June 27). From there on, market has pulled up a bit to the current levels. Monsoon related concerns do provide some support to prices. In the short term, market is likely to drift gradually higher to 17700 – 17800 levels. Breaching above Rs. 18100 on a daily closing basis would sustain the uptrend. Rs. 17000 levels on closing basis appears to be the support for the short term. Weather concerns and commencement of festive season in a month’s time could favour a gradual upside move. Should the price breach Rs. 17000 level, then market could come down to Rs. 16400 levels.


Long term trend


Since April 2014, the jeera prices have been trading in an upward channel. Basis the supports, we believe the current long-term downside support for the market is around 15800 levels. On the upside, the market could potentially re-test the Dec 2017 high of Rs.22300, under favourable situations. So, within the range, prices currently are on the lower side of the range.


Strategy


From a three to four months perspective, processors and traders would benefit fromgradual accumulation at every dip (say at 17300, 17000 and 16500). Our preferred view isthe support of Rs. 15800 levels should hold. This can be the broad strategy for the nextthree to four months before we go into the next sowing season. Short term trade can be initiated at around the current market level Rs. 17350 levels for apotential profit of Rs. 17800, placing the stop at Rs. 17000 levels.


Risk


The long-term outlook needs to be reviewed should the market breaches 15800 and staysthere for more than a week. This could be a possibility if the market.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)


       
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