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Weekly Rapeseed: Mixed Signals to Keep Mustard Choppy

9 Feb 2019 9:58 am
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Mumbai (Commoditiescontrol) – Prices of Mustard seed witnessed sideways trade during previous week with weather concerns supporting the market on one hand while overall bearish oilseed fundamentals pulling the prices from other side. Finally bears won over bulls and at the end of the week and the benchmark oilseed contract settled slightly flat at INR 3902, almost down by 2% from previous week closure.

As per Directorate of Mustard seed Research, so far, the mustard crop is disease-free in all the areas according to 22 coordinating centers of the directorate. However, if rains persist, there can be fungal diseases which may result in premature ripening or the pods producing discolored seeds.

Moreover, as per Directorate, the extent of damage from the hailstorm that lashed northern India on February 7 is yet to be received and wherever it is there, production loss cannot be ruled out. Among the mustard-growing regions — western UP’s Mathura, Bulandsahar, Noida, Rewari in Haryana and Bharatpur in Rajasthan — are the affected districts due to hailstorm as per initial reports from states.

Meanwhile, The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a fresh western disturbance that will affect western Himalayan region and plains of the north-west region from February 13. As farmers in northern states brace for another round of rainfall next week, frequent shower during crop maturity stage shall have adverse impact on overall mustard yield.

The Mustard Oil Producers Association of India has said that oil mills across the country crushed 400,000 tons of the oilseed in January, up 23.1%from the same period a year ago, but down 27.3% from 550,000 tons in December.

During Mar 1-Jan 31, total mustard seed supply was at 7.3 million tons. Arrivals in Rajasthan, the top producer, were at 2.42 million tons, 1.13 million tons in Uttar Pradesh, and a combined 565,000 tons in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Stocks with farmers, processors, stockist and state-run agencies were at 550,000 tons.

Meanwhile, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has recently published export data for export of oilmeals for the month of January 2019. The export of rapeseed meal has sharply increased to 897,537 (486,917) tons in first ten months, mainly exported to South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand. However due to ongoing lean season, m-o-m exports were down by almost 61% from 87 thousand tons exported in Dec’18 to 34.2 thousand tons during Jan’19.

During Apr.’18 – Jan.’19, Vietnam imported 491,720 tons of oilmeals (compared to 552,443 tons); consisting of 166,308 tons of rapeseed meal. South Korea imported 632,109 tons of oilmeals (compared to 675,420 tons); consisting 380,457 tons of rapeseed meal while Thailand imported 263,280 tons of oilmeals (compared to 159,377 tons) wherein rapeseed meal contributed 233,302 tons.

As per SEA officials, the export of rapeseed meal and soybean meal to China is unlikely to resume during current financial year as procedure for registration with MoA, China is too cumbersome, lengthy and time consuming to complete all formalities.

On a short run, likely weather concern during mid-week might provide minor strength to mustard market, however expectation of weak demand along with likely increase in arrivals from next couple of weeks and bearish sentiments in neighboring soya market shall keep the overall trade on sluggish note.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)

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