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Weekly: Soybean Prices Likely To Trade Higher Next Week

29 Sep 2018 5:01 pm
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Mumbai (Commoditiescontrol):


International Market

CBOT soybean futures settled sharply lower on Friday as US Stocks are seen rising amid US-China trade dispute.

Earlier, soybean futures fell to 10-year low but then recovered on news of strong sells to Mexico and other unknown destinations.

However, the things could not go well for rest of the week and USDA has estimated US Soy stocks to jump higher that market expectations which send prices sharply lower Friday.

The uncertainty over the US-China trade dispute has severely dented the US Soy export this season and US is now trying to get other destinations to export it’s massive crop.

China, traditionally buys 70 percent of US Soy crop has been sidelined this season putting pressure on soybean prices.

China have covered positions up to September month with actively buying beans from Brazil but still short by a huge margin.

China is also seeking for alternate source for protein to feed the rapidly increasing domestic pig and poultry industry to reduce it’s dependency from US Soymeal.

Domestic Soybean Market Recap

Soybean prices at the benchmark Indore market remained steady to higher throughout the week. The prices were seen in the range of Rs. 3200 – 3400 per quintal with good demand for crush amid weakness in Indian Rupee.

Arrivals for new crop also reported in the market. There is a moisture of around 18-20 % in new soybean seed which results in lower oil extraction rate, thus the prices were on lower side at Rs. 2900 – 3320 per quintal.

“Farmers are not selling the bean actively in the wake of relatively lower prices and hoping for government buying at minimum support prices.”, an Indore based trader says.

The festival demand is likely to support soy oil prices for coming months unless international veg oil prices go further down, a Mumbai based analyst says.

Meanwhile, Indian government officials and trade participants are trying to negotiate a deal to lift ban on import of Indian soymeal and rapeseed meal by China amid the US-China trade tensions, which may be a welcome move for domestic oilseed crushers.

China is looking for alternate sources to feed the booming pig and poultry industry to lower the dependency on US soymeal and if India gets a chance to fill the gap, it will be a boost to domestic industry.

Meanwhile, India has booked 3 million Tonnes of Soymeal to European Countries with FOB prices ranging in USD370-395 per MT, which is a good news for the industry.

There is a draught in Some of the countries in Europe and loss of grains crop has forced them to look after Soybean and Soymeal imports to feed their livestock.

Soybean prices are likely to stay in higher range next week amid festival demand for soy oil and enquiries for soymeal from local poultry industry as well as from overseas markets.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)

       
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