MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Soybean price at the benchmark Indore market ruled steady during the truncated weekend (Feb 26-Mar 1) at Rs 3,700/100kg amid thin trade activity despite firm cues from domestic and global markets.
But the big news for oilseed has arrived during the market closure as India government on Thursday in bid to support to restricted import and provide benefit to domestic oilseeds sector has increased import duty on crude palm oil from 30% to 44%, while also raised import duty on refined palm oil to 54% from 40%.
However no major reaction witnessed in the spot markets due to closure for extended holiday for Holi festival, but there could be some upside expected on Monday, March 5, 2018.
The news is supportive for oilseeds, like soybean, mustard seed, groundnut seed, etc. as costlier oil import will help revival in domestic oil industry, which was reeling under pressure in recent years due to higher imports.
Coming back to domestic market, daily average crop arrivals during the week reported at 1.17 lakh bags, down from 1.50 lakh bags a week ago. This is much lower than what was required for daily domestic consumption.
As of now millers daily crushing requirement is around 20,000 tonnes, whereas present daily arrival is around 10,000 to 12,000 tonnes. Millers are fulfilling their crushing requirement with adding old stock of soybean from their inventory with daily procured soybean. The crush parity in soybean is positive at Rs 170 per tonne, which has prompted them to procure raw material even at the higher rates in order to attract sellers to sell more of the commodity.
.png)
At present, Indian soybean market is delinked with international soybean market amid sluggish domestic cues.
As per traders, demand of soybean from millers has been limited during the week due to slow off take of soymeal in international as well as domestic market. Domestic demand for soybean meal is not great at present due to rising temperature, which slow down the consumption demand from poultry farms to some extent.
On the other hand, farmers and stockists are still reserved sellers which can be confirmed by tracking arrivals week on week, as most of them are anticipating higher prices in near term. They are expecting soybean prices to rise to Rs 4,000/100kg in near term and then they might gradually liquidate their stock.
In futures market, Soybean most active March contract during the week on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX) ended down by 3.82% at Rs 3,673/100kg.
SOYMEAL
Soymeal at the benchmark Indore market during the week gained by Rs 1200 to trade at Rs 31,400 per tonne because of higher rates quoted by millers.
Millers are procuring soybean at higher price level due to low supply of the commodity in market yards. Higher price of soybean affects the crush margin of millers and in order to keep the crush margin viable, millers have raised the rates of soymeal.
Traders are reporting that demand of soymeal from poultry feed manufacturer has declined as poultry farmers are gradually reducing the placement of chicks. From March on wards summer season starts and consumption of broiler chicken starts declining which leads to slow placement of chicks.
As far as international soymeal market is concerned Indian soymeal is tentatively priced at $500 per tonne CIF Rotterdam vs $452 Argentina CIF Rotterdam (February) as on March 1, 2018. India Soybean Meal is now in disparity of $52/MT compared to $55 last week.
However Overseas buyer are ready to pay premium of around $10-15/tonne for Indian soymeal which is non-genetically modified whereas the Argentine soymeal is genetically modified.
SOYOIL
Refined soy oil in benchmark Indore market of Madhya Pradesh during the week gained by Rs 7 to trade at Rs 750/10kg amid improved demand in retail market.
Further weak rupee has supported the rise in soy oil price. Weak rupee makes the import of edible oil costlier.
In addition to its stock of soy oil at port has decreased to 95,323 tonne as of 26th February vs 1,06,911 on 19th February which is also lending support to soy oil prices.
Soy oil Degum price during the week ended on February 24, gained by $808 to trade at 808 per tonne in dollar terms (CNF) whereas it gained by Rs 10 to trade at Rs 802/10kg in rupees term at Kandla port.
Soy Oil March futures on National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX) ended down by 0.75% at Rs 738.50/10kg.
NEXT WEEK: Domestic Soybean prices are likely to trade positive as government move to slap import duty on edible oils will act as positive for domestic oilseeds. However any sharp rise in domestic soybean prices will make soybean meal even more uncompetitive and may hurt exports.
International Market
US Soybean edged higher by 2.36% at $1060.75 per bushel during the week ended Friday as traders continue to wager that dry conditions in Argentina will damage crops there to the benefit of U.S. farmers. The contract during the week ranged between $1,031-1,071.
"By the time the...rains are forecast to arrive on the 15th, it will probably be too late to save the crop," said Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man Capital Markets.
While Argentina soybeans crop size been facing continuous downgrade, neighboring Brazil crop size been rising. Safras & Mercado is the latest to peg Brazilian 2017-18 crop size up 1.23% to 115.60 million tons.
Larger than usual crop in the Goias state is part of the reason for the upward revision. Good weather and larger planted area underpinned the larger crop size. AgRural currently holds the largest estimate at 116.20 million tons. USDA March is likely to see an upgrade from current value of 112 million tons. Brazil soybean harvest runs from February to April, after which the actual crop size will be apparent.
Weather last week was wet again in central Brazil, but dryer in southern Brazil. The forecast is calling for more wet weather across central Brazil with dryer than normal weather across far southern Brazil.
According to AgRural, the soybean harvest in Brazil is 25% complete compared to 36% last year and 27% for the 5-year average. This represents an advance of 8% for the week. Mato Grosso continues to lead the way with the soybean harvest while Parana continues to hold it back.
The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics is reporting that 58% of the soybeans in the state had been harvested by the end of last week. This compares to 66% last year and it is about equal to the 5-year average. The harvest is approximately 80% complete in the mid-north region and in western Mato Grosso. The slowest harvest pace is in the northeastern region where 26% of the soybeans have been harvested.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22- 40015516)
0 Comments 
Post Comment 
