New Delhi, April 01 (Commodities Control): During the past week, Bihar maize prices have maintained a stable trend as current supplies have adequately met existing demand levels. Buyers have exercised caution in purchasing ahead of the new crop, leading to subdued buying activity. Additionally, selling activity has been sluggish, attributed to the conclusion of the March-end period.
Around 3000-3500 bags of new maize entered the Gulab Bagh mandi, exerting downward pressure on prices, which were quoted around Rs 50 lower per quintal at Rs 2300-2350. Although the weather remains favorable, with forecasts indicating a rise in temperatures, leading to expectations of increased arrivals in the coming days.
Despite the maize grains' relatively smaller size, attributed to higher rates, overall crop quality remains satisfactory. Moreover, maize sowing in Bihar has seen a notable increase of 15-20% compared to the previous year.
There has been a notable surge in warehouse bookings, driven by ethanol buyers stocking maize. However, significant forward rates offered by some major buyers have yet to translate into substantial trading volumes, as traders adopt a cautious approach amid uncertainties surrounding future arrivals.
Currently, new Bihar maize is being traded within Bihar and the Assam zone, with expectations of deliveries expanding to Uttar Pradesh and Northern states like Punjab and Haryana as arrivals increase in the coming weeks. However, deliveries to Maharashtra and Southern zones are unlikely in the near term due to market disparities.
The decline in Indian corn exports by 94% year-on-year is attributed to increased global supplies from the US, Brazil, and Argentina, resulting in downward pressure on export prices. Export demand is anticipated to shift towards ethanol production, aligned with the ethanol blending target for the 2023-24 Ethanol Supply Year (ESY), of which 11.6% has been achieved thus far.
Cooperatives such as NAFED and NCCF are set to collaborate with distillers, offering assured maize supply at Rs 2291 per quintal for ethanol production, inclusive of procurement costs and agency margins.
In Maharashtra, new maize arrivals are trading at Rs 2175-2200 per quintal in mandis, while ex-warehouse prices in Sangli remain steady at Rs 2350 per quintal. Similarly, prices in other consumption markets like Davengere and Bangalore are trading within the range of Rs 2300-2380 per quintal.
Looking ahead, Bihar maize prices are anticipated to decline by Rs 150-200 per quintal due to arrival pressure. However, further price trends will hinge on the extent of active rack indents, demand from Bangladesh at lower rates, and aggressive maize procurement by ethanol producers.