Mumbai, 14 Mar (Commoditiescontrol): After a steep downward slide since January 2024, Russian wheat exportprices have stabilised temporarilyd. Trade sources indicate a pause in the decline, which had seen prices lose $45-50 per metric ton (mt) earlier this year.
Temporary Floor Reached
Selling offers for 12.5% protein wheat out of Black Sea ports have dropped to $199-200/mt FOB NTTK, the lowest since July 2020. However, bidding activity has resumed in the high $190s/mt or even $200/mt range, with some April shipment sales reportedly concluded in the low $200s/mt.
While domestic prices have also softened, their decline has been less severe. The purchasing price index for Novorossiysk indicates a drop of around $18/mt to $139/mt.
Potential for Further Decline
Market sentiment remains mixed. Some sources believe prices may continue their fall, with potential to reach $190/mt FOB NTTK. This uncertainty stems from Russia's record-level wheat stocks, strong export activity, and a promising outlook for the upcoming crop, estimated at 92-96 million mt.
Global Factors at Play
The return of Egypt's GASC to the wheat purchasing market could impact demand. Additionally, some industry sources attribute the price fluctuations not only to the Russian market but also to broader factors such as:
Geopolitical uncertainties
Federal Reserve policies
Global crop outlook for 2024/25
Chinese stockpiling activity
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)
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