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IGC Cuts Global Wheat Production Estimate; Corn Outlook Mixed

28 May 2024 4:02 pm
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MUMBAI, 28 May (Commoditiescontrol): The International Grains Council (IGC) has revised its global wheat production estimate for April, reducing it by 3.2 million metric tonnes (MMT) to 794.5 MMT. This adjustment primarily reflects a significant decrease in expected production from Russia, where the estimate dropped from 90.4 MMT to 85.5 MMT. Additionally, wheat production estimates in the United States and Ukraine were lowered by 2.2 MMT and 0.8 MMT, respectively.

Conversely, China's wheat crop size has been adjusted upward by 1.5 MMT to 140.0 MMT, and India's crop has expanded by 2 MMT to 112 MMT. However, this increase for India is contentious due to adverse weather conditions, such as heatwaves and untimely rainfall during the harvest period, casting doubt on the justification for the revised estimates.

The IGC also reported a 1.7 MMT reduction in feed use, which primarily drove a 2 MMT decrease in global wheat use from the previous month. Consequently, ending stocks have increased by 800,000 metric tonnes to 259.8 MMT, reflecting a 2% rise (6.1 MMT) from the 2023/2024 season.

In the latest reports, the IGC forecasts global corn production for 2024-25 at 1,220 MMT, a reduction of 6 MMT from 2023-24. Corn carryover is also expected to decrease by 10 MMT to 281 MMT in 2024/25. Despite this, corn consumption is projected to rise by 2 MMT to 1,225 MMT in 2024/25.

US corn prices showed an uptick, closing the session on May 24, 2024, with July futures at $182.90/MT, September at $186.76/MT, and December at $192.19/MT. Corresponding FOB prices were reported as: US Gulf $201-202/MT (May-Aug), PNW $235-231/MT (May-Jul), and US#3 corn $225-230/MT (Sep).

Prices for corn from other origins were noted as Argentina $190-195/MT (Aug), Brazil $210-205/MT (Aug), and Ukraine $200-205/MT (Aug).

These adjustments in wheat and corn production estimates highlight the complexities and challenges in global grain markets, influenced by various regional factors and changing weather conditions. The increased ending stocks for wheat and the mixed outlook for corn underscore the importance of closely monitoring agricultural developments.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91 98201 3018)

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