New Delhi, May 2 (CommoditiesControl): Wheat prices have maintained a steady to firm trend in recent sessions, supported by a sluggish arrival pace and robust purchasing activity from stockists. The slow arrivals, particularly evident in Uttar Pradesh, are attributed to a combination of factors including active stockpiling, government procurement, and ongoing elections in key wheat-growing states.
Even with the conclusion of elections, a significant uptick in arrivals is not anticipated, as many farmers are holding onto their wheat stocks following recent price increases. In Uttar Pradesh mandis, arrivals, which averaged 30,000-35,000 bags in recent days, have declined to around 20,000-25,000 bags.
Meanwhile, the Punjab State agriculture department has forecasted a bumper crop following crop cutting experiments indicating an increase from an average yield of 19 quintals to 22 quintals per acre. Initial estimates project wheat output of 16.2 million tons, with 13.2 million tons expected for procurement.
However, wheat procurement has reached 20.1 million tons, a decrease of approximately 10% year-on-year due to delayed harvesting in Punjab and Haryana by 5-7 days. Procurement is forecasted to fall short by 1-2 million tons against the government's target of 30 million tons.
Typically, arrivals in Haryana and Punjab would taper off by this period. However, delays in arrivals, especially in Punjab, due to recent rains have disrupted this pattern. Private stockists and flour millers have bolstered their reserves, while farmers are also holding onto their supplies.
With arrivals dwindling in Haryana and anticipated sharp declines in Punjab within the next 8-10 days, wheat prices are poised to rise in Delhi and nearby zones due to scarcity. In Delhi, prices have already increased by INR 10 per quintal to INR 2490, while Rajasthan and Gujarat saw steady trading at INR 2570 per quintal, fueled by strong demand.
In South India and Madhya Pradesh, buyers remain active, while sellers exhibit relative weakness. Tamil Nadu buyers are offering INR 2870 per quintal, Hyderabad buyers INR 2825 per quintal, and Bengaluru buyers INR 2850 per quintal. Despite willingness to pay slightly higher rates, selling activity remains subdued.
Given the current scenario, wheat prices are expected to trade steadily to firmly in the near term. However, market participants will closely monitor procurement figures and government policies, as reduced government procurement or changes in import duties could impact prices in the medium to long term.Today, Bihar maize prices remained steady to slightly firm, driven by robust rack loading activities and godown stocking. In Gulabbagh mandi, prices held steady within the range of INR 2010-2040 per quintal. However, buyers in godowns and racks pushed prices slightly up by INR 5-10 per quintal.
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