Mumbai, 22 May (Commoditiescontrol): Canada's agricultural sector is poised for a rebound in the 2024-25 season, with production and supply of principal field crops expected to increase significantly. Assuming normal weather conditions and a return to trend yields, total principal field crop production is projected to reach 94.4 million tonnes. This marks a 5% increase over the five-year average and a 4% rise above the ten-year average, signaling a return to more stable levels after recent challenges.
The April 30, 2024, report from the Canadian Drought Monitor highlights that the most significant climate-related risk to achieving these yields remains widespread dry conditions across much of Western Canada. Despite near-normal to above-normal precipitation across most of the Prairie growing region in April, these areas continue to experience substantial dryness.
Planting activities are currently underway on the Canadian Prairies. Recent precipitation has improved topsoil moisture conditions for most of the region, providing some relief from the persistent drought. However, the Peace Region remains an exception, still grappling with inadequate moisture levels. Additionally, subsoil moisture across the Prairies remains well below normal due to prolonged precipitation deficits spanning multiple years. This underscores the critical need for timely rains throughout the growing season to achieve optimal yield potential.
In Eastern Canada, the seeding of spring cereals is nearly complete, but the planting of corn and soybeans has faced delays. Rain and cooler-than-expected weather have hindered progress, adding to the challenges faced by farmers in the region.
Area seeded to durum is expected to increase by 5% to 2.6 million hectares (Mha). Saskatchewan seen dominating durum wheat seeding at 83%, followed by 16% in Alberta, and the remaining 1% mostly in Manitoba. Yields are currently forecast to bounce back, but with drought continuing to plague parts of the prime durum growing regions, yields could be adversely affected if timely rains do not materialize. Production is forecast to rise 40% to 5.7 Mt with total supply up 37%.
For 2024-25, Canadian production of wheat (excluding durum) is estimated to grow 4% to 28.9 Mt, despite a 1% reduction in seeded area, assuming trend yields.
Canadian barley production is projected at 9.5 Mt, up 7% year-over-year, while Corn production is projected at 14.9 Mt, down slightly year-over-year, based on projected average yields, despite an expected increase in acreage.
Among oilseeds, Canola output is forecast to fall marginally at of 18.1 Mt due to the drop in seeded area of to 8.7 million Mha. The decline is attributed to declining prices, steady input costs, low late-fall soil moisture, and competitive wheat prices. Similarly, soybean area is estimated to fall marginally to 2.26 Mha as support from steady crusher and export buying, lower corn prices, and good soil moisture offsets lower prices.
As regards pulses, the country hopes to cash-in on growing demand from consuming countries such as India, China, UAE, Bangladesh, etc. Dry Peas producers intend to increase seeded area to 1.26 Mha, 2% above previous year. Similarly, Lentil producers have seeded 4% higher area compared to a year ago level. Chickpea seeded area is estimated to rise from 2023‐24 due to prospects for higher returns compared to other crops. Chickpea production is forecast to rise by 58% to 225,000 tonnes.
Another important crops covered are Mustard Seed, Canary Seed, Sunflower Seed, which are slate to witness a fall in area seeded due to lower returns.
Meanwhile, the outlook for the 2023-24 season paints a less optimistic picture. According to Statistics Canada's latest release on May 7, 2024, stocks of principal field crops as of March 31, 2024, were estimated to be 10.1% below 2023 levels. This decline is primarily attributed to the dry conditions experienced in large portions of Western Canada during the 2023 growing season, which significantly reduced yields and production.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)
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