Mumbai, May 14 (Commoditiescontrol): The southwest monsoon is anticipated to reach the southern Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands around May 19th, a couple of days earlier than the usual onset date of May 22nd, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The monsoon is then expected to advance towards Kerala around June 1st before gradually progressing northward and covering the entire country by mid-July.
The IMD's long-range forecast indicates that monsoon showers between June and September are likely to be "above normal" at 106% of the long-period average (LPA), with a potential model error of ±5%. The LPA for the entire season, calculated for the period between 1971 and 2020, stands at 87cm.
While the monsoon is expected to bring much-needed relief from the scorching heat, the IMD has also issued a warning for a fresh heatwave over northwest India starting May 16th. Temperatures in many parts of northwest and east India are predicted to gradually increase by approximately 3-5 degrees Celsius over the next five days.
In addition to the above, the IMD forecasts isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, central Maharashtra, and Marathwada over the next five days. Similar weather conditions, with gusty winds, are expected over Gujarat on May 14th.
IMD will be providing a more detailed forecast in the last week of May, including probabilistic predictions for seasonal rainfall across India's four homogenous regions and the monsoon core zone.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)
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