NEW DELHI, August 11 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest August report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global soybean production estimates in 2023-24 to 402.79 million tonnes, compared to 405.31 million tonnes projected in July 2023.
The 2023/24 global oilseed supply and demand forecast includes lower exports, reduced crush, and higher ending stocks.
Global oilseed production is nearly unchanged at 539.7 million tonnes as higher sunflowerseed and peanut production are mostly offset by lower rapeseed output.
Ukraine and Russia sunflowerseed production is forecast higher as timely rain in July improved yield potential. Conversely, Canada’s canola crop is lowered 1.3 million tonnes to 19 million as drought intensified in the southwestern Prairies during July. EU sunflowerseed production is also reduced on lower production for Romania, Spain, and France.
Global soybean exports are reduced 0.5 million tonnes to 168.8 million on lower U.S. exports. Soybean crush and imports are reduced for Bangladesh, Egypt, and Pakistan, in line with downward revisions in the prior marketing year. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 1.6 million tons to 119.4 million mainly on lower U.S. stocks.
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2023/24 include higher beginning stocks and lower production and exports. Beginning stocks are raised on higher 2022/23 imports.
Soybean production for 2023/24 is forecast at 4.2 billion bushels, down 95 million on lower yields. Harvested area is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month.
Soybean supplies for 2023/24 are projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 2 percent from last year. With soybean exports down 25 million bushels on lower supplies and crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.70 per bushel, up $0.30 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast at $380 per short ton, up 5 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is 62 cents per pound, up 2 cents.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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