Mumbai, 10 May (Commoditiescontrol): ICE raw sugar futures ended mixed on Thursday, as support of weaker dollar was undermined by robust Brazilian sugar output prospect. Datagro raised its sugar production estimate for Brazil's Center-South region while weakness in the Brazilian real encourages export selling from Brazil's sugar producers. The real fell to a 1-week low against the dollar.
Datagro hiked its 2024 Center-South sugar production estimate to 41.6 MMT from a March estimate of 40.45 MMT.
ICE sugar futures for July delivery settled down 0.02 cents or 0.10% at 19.58 cents per lb. It lost 7.1% this week. August London ICE white sugar contract rose $2.70 or 0.47% at $575.60 a metric ton.
ICE confirmed on Wednesday a large delivery on the expiring May contract of around 1.67 million tons. Traders were split on the possible impact to the market of such a large delivery, which would usually be a bearish sign.
Dealers said the market was stuck between solid support around 19 cents and resistance at 20 cents, noting prices had held in that band for the last couple of weeks. They said the dry and hot weather in Brazil will likely boost production numbers in the early part of the crop.
Sugar production in Brazil's Centre-South region is forecast to total 42.3 million tons in 2024/25, StoneX said on Tuesday. Output in 2023/24 has been estimated by industry group UNICA at 42.4 million.
The global sugar market is heading to a small surplus of 1.62 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season (Oct-Sept), after posting a deficit of 1.79 million tons in 2023/24, as production in Thailand recovers, according to consultancy Datagro.
Meanwhile, on Monday, Thailand's Meteorological Department said that more than three dozen of Thailand's 77 provinces had posted record-high temperatures this month, with new highs beating records as far back as 1958.
The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association reported Monday that India's 2023/24 sugar production from Oct-Apr fell 1.6% on year to 31.4 MMT as more sugar mills closed for the year and ended their sugarcane crush. As of Apr 30th, 516 Indian sugar mills had closed operations compared with 460 mills that closed at the same time last year.
Citi maintained its forecast for another deficit in 2024/25 and for raw sugar futures to trade in the range of 22-25 cents per pound next quarter. "The international sugar market does not seem to have adequately priced in risks of crop downgrades for the 2024/25 CS Brazil season," Citi said in a note.
In recent times, Sugar prices drifted lower, hit by ideas of better supplies from Asia and Brazil, but dealers said the fall attracted some bargain buying on Thursday.
Elsewhere, Vietnam's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand's 2023/24 sugar production from Dec-Mar was 8.75 MMT, above a Feb estimate from the Thai Sugar Millers Corp for sugar production of 7.5 MMT.
Ukraine is likely to have used up its proposed 2024 sugar export quota from the European Union by next month and could have to cut the area sown with sugar beet by up to 20% unless it finds other markets, a top official said on Thursday.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data on showed speculators have increased their net short position in raw sugar by 9,659 lots to 37,684 lots.
For Friday, support for the Jul Sugar contract is at 19.36 cents and 19.15 cents, with resistance at 19.83 cents and 20.09 cents.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)
0 Comments 
Post Comment 
