Mumbai, May 11 (Commoditiescontrol): StoneX, a leading agricultural commodities brokerage firm, has significantly reduced its forecast for soybean production in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, by 3 million metric tons (MMT) to 20 MMT. This drastic cut is a direct result of the recent catastrophic flooding that has ravaged the southern Brazilian state.
The relentless rainfall has caused widespread damage, resulting in a disaster of economic, environmental, and most importantly, social and human proportions. The full extent of the impact is still being assessed, as many regions remain submerged, and others are on high alert.
Prior to the floods, Rio Grande do Sul was projected to be the second-largest soybean producer in Brazil for the 2023/24 cycle. However, with 30% of the crop still unharvested when the rains hit, significant productivity losses are inevitable.
The northern and northeastern regions of the state, which account for approximately 67% of the soybean area, were less affected, with only about 10% of the crops remaining unharvested. In contrast, the southern half, representing 33% of the soybean area, had 60% of the crop still in the fields when the floods struck.
While the most affected areas are not major soybean producers, the impact on warehouses and logistics in the capital, Porto Alegre, and its surrounding areas is a cause for concern.
Based on an initial assessment, StoneX has lowered its soybean yield estimate for the state by 13%, resulting in a 3 MMT reduction in the final production forecast. This revision brings the estimated harvest in Rio Grande do Sul down from 23.05 MMT to 20.05 MMT, and StoneX's national forecast from 150.8 MMT to 147.8 MMT.
The full impact of the excessive moisture on grain quality, storage facilities, and both internal and export logistics remains to be seen. With more rain expected in the coming days, further revisions to the forecast cannot be ruled out. The situation continues to be closely monitored as the state grapples with the aftermath of this devastating natural disaster.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)
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