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Weekly: Moong Climbs Nearly 9% This Week On Demand, Crop Concern

12 Aug 2017 5:19 pm
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MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Moong was the major gainer in pulses complex during the week ended Saturday on strong domestic buying performance supported by other cues. Tur, Urad, Masoor and Chana also followed the suit amid rising demand trend. However, Matar ended the week with marginal loss due to ample supply.

India Kharif Sowing Area Reaches At 893.66 Lakh Ha (Full Report)



Moong (Green Gram)

Moong was the major gainer in pulse complex with rising as much as 8.89% to Rs 4,900/100kg at the benchmark Jaipur market of Rajasthan due to good buying at the lower level followed by declined in acreage.

Moong acreage in the country as on August 11 dropped 3.88% at 23.41 lakh hectares versus 29.96 lakh hectares a year ago. Farmers in major producing belts have shifted to other remunerative crops due to poor realization in Moong this season.

Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karantaka, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh are the major producer of moong during Kharif season. The acreage of moong decline sharply 18.75% in Uttar Pradesh, whereas it fell by 14.90% and 11.20% in Karnataka and Maharashtra respectively (Full Report).


The prices of Moong was just not suruged because of drop in acreage, but there is concern about crop in key producing regions of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Rajasthan due to scanty rainfall. Moong is a short duration crop and require good rainfall during growth period, which was seen absent in major regions, according to traders.


Production of Kharif moong is expected lower this season due to fall in acreage and yeild concern, which has prompted buyers to turn active as prices are around lower level. Moong price earlier on July 28 fell to multi year low at Rs 4,100/100kg. Lower prices attracted buyers with prospects of good rise ahead due to various fundamental reasons discussed above.


Meanwhile, Nafed is selling Moong through auction using e-platform of NeML. The progressive sale of moong so far reached at 6517.015 metric tonnes, according to data available of Nafed website. The agency on August 8 sold 1343.24 metric tonnes of moong in Maharashtra and Karnataka at weighed average price of Rs 4,358/100kg, which is below MSP of 5,225 (including Rs 425 bonus).


Moong price in the near term may trade positive with prospects of lower production this season due to adverse weather conditions and expectations of rise in demand ahead of festival season. 


The country has produced 15.3 lakh tonnes of moong during Kharif 2016-17 season, according to agri minsitry. The total (kharif+rabi) production stood higher at 20.7 lakh tonnes against 15.9 lakh tonnes a year ago.


Tur (Pigeon Pea)
Burma lemon Tur prices rose 7.50% at Rs 4,300/100kg during the week at the Mumbai market after government last week put imports of pigeon peas/toor dal under the restricted category and fixed a quota for its inbound shipments. Improved demand at the lower level with fall in acreage (Full Report) and concern about the crop in key regions amid erratic rainfall has also acted positive factors for Tur prices.

India governemnt earlier last week on August 5, 2017 after the market close in a circular fixed import quantity with subject to an annual (fiscal year) quota of 2 lakh tonne to support farmers after sharp fall in prices in last couple of years. According to Port Authority Imported Tur Consignment With BL (Bill Of Lading) Date On Or Before Aug 4 Having Proper Mentioned (Shipped On Board) Will Not Be Restricted. (Full Report)

Tur prices skyrocket and jumped around Rs 500/100kg on August 5 after the notification released by governemnt to put Tur/Tur Dal in restricted quantity.


The import quantity 2 lakh tonnes fixed for Tur has been already acheived during the current fiscal year and thus no more permission will be granted, said Director General of Trade in a circular released on August 11. (Full Report)


Tur prices also supported by concern about upcoming kharif crop in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh which is less and yield is expected to be low due to scanty rainfall. Acreage in Tur has already gone down, and with threat of poor yield, Tur prices in the near term is likely to trade positive helped by good demand ahead of festival season.


There are few sellers in the market now after governemnt annoucement as there is good prospects of Tur in weeks ahead. However, Tur stock liquidation by government will be a key factor to watch out, as it will play an important role deciding future course of price trend. Government has around 15-16 lakh tonnes of Tur in buffer stock and in case it prefer to sell below MSP then rally in Tur prices will be restricted.


Govt Stock Liquidation Policy To Decide Tur Future Price Trend
(Full Report)

Meanwhile, demand from consumption centers in processed Tur had been observed better during the week as pipeline is empty and demand is expected to shift in processed Tur as vegetable prices are higher.


Prices of processed Tur traded sharply higher by Rs 300-350/100Kg on good trade activity from retail and wholesale counters. In Maharashtra, processed Tur Phatka Sortex quality priced at Rs 6,200/100 Kg, semi-Sortex at Rs 6,000 and regular at Rs 5,750.


On Friday, Bihar origin new Tur was priced higher by Rs 100 to Rs 3,900/100 Kg, Uttar Pradesh origin Tur at Rs 4.000 due to average quality. Madhya Pradesh origin also gained by Rs 200 to Rs 4,200 for Kanpur delivery condition with 13% kachri quality, 2.5% vatau and 1% bardana discount.


Maharashtra origin (Ahmednagar/Jalna/Aurangabad) White Tur was quoted higher at Rs 4,600/100Kg for Kanpur delivery condition with 8% Kachri, 2.5% vatau and 1% bardana discount.


Masoor (Lentil):
Lentil (Canada Crimson) prices performed better this week as prices in Mumbai market climbed 1-month high at Rs 4,700/100kg due to lift in buying from millers and stockiest driven by rise in demand in processed Masoor from retailers and wholesalers. Further, firm trend in prices of Tur had also lend support.

According to sources, imports of Masoor has been not cleared by customs due to confusion in notification of ban on imports of Tur was mentioned as ‘Lentil/Pigeon Pea’. Whatsoever, the government has not imposed ban of Masoor in the country and documents would soon be cleared.



Vessel M V LOWLANDS AMSTEL carrying 25,200 tonnes of Masoor and 12,600 tonnes of Yellow pea from Canada had discharged 34,875 MT till date at Mumbai port, said a shipping source.


Meanwhile Masoor crop is in in trouble in Canada and U.S due to adverse weather condition during growth period. A U.S based trader forecast U.S 2017-18 masoor crop 437,000 tonnes, down 24 percent from last year despite a nine percent increase in acres. Canada’s crop is also struggling because a lot of green Masoor are grown in the drought-stricken region of south-central Saskatchewan. Trade source is forecasting below-average yields for the province.


Urad (Black Matpe/Black Gram)
Burma Urad FAQ at the key Mumbai market rose 6.10% at Rs 4,300/100kg during the week ended Saturday on good buying by millers from key consumption centers. Demand and trading activity in processed Urad was reported good from wholesale and retail counters. However, buyers were cautious and are purchasing as per their immediate requirement, due to fluctuation in urad prices from last one week and with expectations of Kharif crop to start from next month.

According to market sources, prices of Urad may get support for short term period at time of new crop arrivals as yield is expected to be low due to scanty rainfall in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Also, no supply is reported from Burma in the near future due to the low quantity of cargo arrivals at the ports as trade was reported less by Indian buyers from Burma due to lower rates.


Urad sowing in the country as on August 11 rose by 21.05% at 38.30 lakh hectares against 31.64 lakh hectares a year ago. Urad sowing jumped sharply in Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Rajasthan. (Full Report)


Burma Urad FAQ jumped up 5.26% at 4,500 in Chennai this week, whereas SQ variety was priced sharply up by over 11% at Rs 5,500 on better local millers buying due to upcoming holidays. Further demand in processed urad was good from consumption centers.


Chana (Chickpea)
Rise in demand for Chana ahead of festival season at the lower level, thin supply helped prices to rise 3.81% at Rs 5,400-5,450/100kg at the Indore market of Madhya Pradesh during thw week. Good rally on futures has also helped the cause.

In forward business, Australia origin chana was priced firm $800 per ton on CNF basis Nhava- Sheva for August-September shipment. Chana production in Australia is likely to decline this season amid contraction in acreage amid dry weather in key producing belts. According to intial report received from trade sources, Australia is likely to harvest 10 lakh tonnes of Chana in 2017-18 against more than 18 lakh tonnes a year ago. The current year estimated production is much lower from around 14 lakh tonnes forecast by Australia agrilcutre ministry (Abares).


Australian Chana dal moved up by Rs 100 to Rs 6,700/100 Kg on improved buying. Domestic Chana dal of Maharashtra at Rs 6,800. Regular chana dal at Rs 6,700/100Kg. On other hand, Chana besan variety ruled flat at Rs 3,820/50 and Vatana besan at Rs 1,621/50 Kg. Vatana dal offered at Rs 2,775.


Kabuli Chana of all counts in ready business rallied by Rs 300-400/100Kg at Indore amid buyers were reported to be active in purchasing the commodity at prevailing rates. Supply totaled at 3,000 Bags (Each Bag=100Kgs) today at Madhya Pradesh out of which 1,500 Bags arrived at Indore.


Vessel M V AKILI expected to arrive with 24,658 MT Canada Yellow Pea at Mumbai port on Aug 13. Vessel M V ALLIANCE 27,200 MT France White Pea likely to arrive Mumbai port On Aug 25. Vessel M V MANDARIN TRADERS carrying 30,000 MT Baltic Yellow Pea would arrive at the Mumbai port on August 29. Vessel M V RELIABLE carrying 40,000 MT France Yellow Pea is expected to arrive at Mumbai port on August 31.


Stockiest who had maintained stock at higher rates around 6,000/100kg earlier will be active to liquidate their stock in the market at every rise. Demand in Chana Dal may be subdued at higher rates and also may shift to other dal, such as White Pea dal, Tevda dal and Batri dal due to cheaper price. Already, we have marked that consumption of White Pea dal had increased compare to Chana Dal due to cheaper rates.


Nafed as on August 5 procured around 44040.56 metric tonnes of chana under price stabilization fund (PSF) from various states for bufer stocks.


Chana prices in the near term is likely to perform better due to key consumption period (August-October) amid festival season.


Matar (Dry Pea)

Matar was the only pulses, that ended the week in negative trajectory of 0.44% at Rs 2,261/100kg at the key Mumbai pulses market due to ample stocks in the country. Consistent supply of Matar from overseas has weighed on pries with many vessel are in lie up to reach India ports this month.

Vessel M V AKILI expected to arrive with 24,658 MT Canada Yellow Pea at Mumbai port on Aug 13. Vessel M V ALLIANCE 27,200 MT France White Pea likely to arrive Mumbai port On Aug 25. Vessel M V MANDARIN TRADERS carrying 30,000 MT Baltic Yellow Pea would arrive at the Mumbai port on August 29. Vessel M V RELIABLE carrying 40,000 MT France Yellow Pea is expected to arrive at Mumbai port on August 31.


For 2017-18, Matar seeded area in Canada decreased to 1.66 million hectares (Mha), down 3% from 2016-17 despite good returns relative to other crops and continued recognition of the benefits of dry peas as part of crop rotation plan. Production is forecast to fall by 13% to 4.2 Mt due to the expectations of lower average yields combined with a confirmed lower area.

However, supply is forecast to fall by 14% to 4.4 million tonnes due to the lower carry-in stocks combining with a decrease in production. Exports are forecast to fall to 3.2 million tonnes due to the smaller exportable supply, with India, China and lower supply Bangladesh continuing to be Canada’s top markets. Carry-out stocks are also forecast to rise but remain below the five and ten year average. The average price is expected to fall from 2016-17, despite the lower supply, due primarily to expectations for an increase in world supply.

Though Matar prices during the week was under pressure in the country, but rising Chana prices is likely to provide some push to prices next week, but gain could be limited due to sufficient supply. Matar demand is likely to increase ahead due to festival season, but prices unlikely to get any major benefit as discussed due to ample supply.


Meanwhile one should also keep close eyes on Canada and U.S crop, which is in concern zone due to adverse weather in both countries. Output in Canada, world's largest producer, is likely to decline sigificantly not only due to erratic weather, but also due to shrinkage in area.
  (By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)

 


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