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Monsoon 10% Deficient in July; Driest July in 5 Years

1 Aug 2020 5:18 pm
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Mumbai (commodities control )- After a wet start to the season in June, the southwest monsoon stuttered in July. The month ended with a countrywide monsoon deficit of 10%, making it the driest July in five years, as most parts of northwest and central India received poor rains during the month.

Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department, the country’s official weather agency, updated its monsoon forecast for the second half of the season, which pointed to the possibility of heavy rains in September.

IMD said the second half of the monsoon season (August-September) is likely to see rainfall at 104% of the long period average (which means rains are expected to be 4% above normal). For August, the agency said rainfall could be 97% of LPA.

“September is likely to get heavy rainfall as La Nina conditions are expected to develop in the Pacific, which generally aids the Indian summer monsoon. Overall, the monsoon is expected to be normal,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD chief. 

Last year, India had experienced its wettest September since 1917, leading to floods in many parts of the country.

At the halfway stage of the current season, the monsoon is neither in deficit nor in surplus. June had a rain surplus of nearly 18% while July, normally the wettest month of the year in India, ended with a 10% deficit.

IMD’s forecast update does not preclude the possibility of above-normal rainfall in the second half of the season.

“The probabilistic forecast suggests rainfall over the country during the second half will most likely be normal (94-106% of LPA). However, the probability of above normal rainfall (106% of LPA) is also higher than the corresponding climatological probability,” the forecast states.

IMD had predicted normal rainfall in July at 103% of LPA. 


Officials said the absence of any low pressure system in the Bay of Bengal depressed the monsoon.
    According to IMD, nearly 22% of the region have received less than normal rains. These regions include Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha, Himachal Pradesh, Eatern U.P., J&K And North-Eastern states along with Kerala.

  Situation in Gujarat region is critical, as 20 districts have received scanty rainfall. Out of these, Banaskatha,Dahod, Dang and Tapi districts are drought-struck.

  Districts of Vadodara, Valsad and Narmada are facing critical situation due to weaker than average rains.

  26 districts of Rajasthan and nearly 17 districts in M.P. are undergoing rainfall crisis. Meanwhile 22 districts in Jammu and Kashmir are facing drought like conditions. Situation is critical for Bandipore, Jammu, Kishtwad, Kulgam, Poonch, Shopia and Kargil.

  In Haryana, the region of Mahendragarh, Palwal, Mewat and Rohtak have received less than normal rains.

  Even Western Uttar Pradesh is in critical situation due to lesser rainfall. During the two months of monsoon, Bulandshahar, GautamBuddhanagar, Ghaziabad, Mathura and Rampur along with Mahoba are facing drought like conditions.

(Commodities Control Bureau)      

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