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USDA FAS Mumbai Estimates Telangana Cotton Yield To Drop Post PBW

7 Dec 2017 2:26 pm
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MUMBAI(Commoditiescontrol): FAS Mumbai forecasts MY 2017/18 cotton production at 29.8 million 480 lb. bales on an acreage of 12.3 million hectares.

Production forecast revised but 10 percent higher than last year FAS Mumbai revised the cotton production forecast to 29.8 million 480 lb. bales (38.2 million 170 kg. bales/6.5 mmt) on acreage of 12.3 million hectares.

The FAS Mumbai forecast is 200,000 480 lb. bales lower than USDA official estimate. The recent untimely rains and pest infestation issues in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh suggest lowering production. 

The all India yield is expected to be around 528 kg per hectare. 

Cotton picking in progress but fear of pink bollworm remains a concern

Cotton picking in progress but fear of pink bollworm remains a concern Post travel to northern Telangana in late November indicates farmers are now harvesting the second picking. 

With first pickings over, farmers are not rushing to the market to deliver seed cotton due to low market prices. Seed cotton prices in the wholesale market yards in Telangana are staying close to minimum support price (MSP) rates. However, much of the cotton is discounted due to poor quality issues like discoloration and high moisture content. 

Trade sources indicate a high incidence of pink bollworm and sucking pests for the first picking in certain districts in Telangana. There seem to be limited issues with quality in the standing crop ready for New Delhi Cotton the second picking. In Andhra Pradesh, the government has issued advisories to install pheromone traps to monitor the incidence of pink bollworm along with the spraying of insecticides. 

A similar advisory was issued in northern Telangana. There are a number of stated reasons for the higher incidences of pink bollworm infestations. These range from resistance of bollworm to Bt toxins, use of spurious and/or unapproved seeds by farmers, limited or poor planting of refugia non-Bt cotton, cultivation of longduration hybrids which provides continuous food for the pest, poor integrated pest management practices, and storage of damaged cotton at gins and market yards. While acreage in Telangana has increased significantly from last year, the yield is estimated lower at 492 kg per hectare. 

In Maharashtra, trade sources indicate widespread reports of pink bollworm infestations (even after the third picking), but there are no official reports on the extent of the damage. In Gujarat, cotton picking is underway with no pest or infestation issues reported. In Karnataka, the bolls are mature and the first picking of seed cotton in late sown crop, and second picking of early sown crop is in progress. In Tamil Nadu, the crop is at squaring and vegetative stages, and government advisories indicate farmers are to provide adequate drainage in rain-fed and irrigated crops in order to prevent water standing as rains are anticipated in next few days.


FAS Mumbai forecasts MY 2017/18 exports at 4.3 million 480 lb. bales (5.5 million 170 kg bales/ 936,000 mt) which is lower than the USDA official forecast as Indian cotton will need to compete with cotton from other major exporters. 

While Indian Ex-gin prices have fallen by 4-5 percent since the beginning of MY 2017/18 with expectation of a large crop, and are lower than Cotlook A-Index (FE) making Indian cotton prices competitive, Indian cotton may not be competitive on technical or quality parameters that affect its export prospects. Bangladesh remained the top cotton export destination, followed by Vietnam, Taiwan and China. 

Preliminary cotton yarn export data shows signs of improvement in September and October as strong demand was observed from China, followed by Bangladesh, Pakistan and Egypt. Unites States, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were the top destinations for exports of cotton fabrics, made ups and other textile products. 

The FAS Mumbai MY 2017/18 import forecast is 1.5 million 480 lb. bales (1.9 million 170 kg bales/ 326,600 mt). 

This is 100,000 480 lb. bales higher than the USDA official forecast. Even though a large crop is expected, imports will remain strong as mills import for processing and re-export to cover export commitments. For MY 2016/17, Post has revised the export and import numbers based on trade data for the full marketing year.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015534)

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