Gold
Gold prices in International spot market since 1st March was traded in the region of $1315.2 and $1280.7 per oz and settled closer to $130 on March-08. Gold prices made a 2019 year high of $1346.75 per oz on Feb-20th and since then it has declined by more than five percent.
Gold prices have declined due to concern over slowdown of Chinese economic growth which was forecasted in the region of 6 and 6.5 percent during 2019 and also on reports that US and China trade war is likely to end soon as both sides inching closer to an amicable deal. Outlook for the global economy darkened after the ECB said in its monetary policy meeting that the benchmark interest rates will remain unchanged for the rest of this year. The ECB also said that it will announce new stimulus measures to support the economy.
US Feb non-farm payrolls data added lesser than anticipated jobs to the economy but wages moved higher. In Feb 20,000 jobs were added against expected 180,000 and worst month of job creation since Sep-2017. This may aide rebound in gold during next week, but sustainability is still a question mark.
Gold may rebound in the coming week and is expected to test higher resistance in the region of $1310 and $1320-1325 per oz and unlikely to stay higher.
Technically strong support is seen in the region of $1276-1270 per oz and in case breach of that support in all probability will signal further weakness towards $1250-1240 per oz before it confirms further direction.
MCX-April-2019 contract
Since Mar 1st gold futures were traded in the region of INR 33007 and INR 31777 per 10 gm. Prices dropped sharply from the Feb-20th high of INR 34031 per 10 gm.
Prices declined sharply in the last three weeks on rumours about cut in customs duty as well as release of gold sector policy, before the formal announcement of lok sabha schedule. Moreover rupee appreciation has also attributed to the recent fall.
Based on the daily chart formation prices are expected to rebound for the recent fall and may test the higher resistances of INR 32550 to 32650 levels going forward. The recent low of INR 31777 will act as strong support.
Silver Spot
Since Mar 1st silver spot prices were traded in the region of $15.63 and $ 14.96 per oz. Prices dropped sharply from the Feb-20th high of $16.21 per oz.
Strong support is seen at $14.70 and only below chance for further weakness
Silver is likely to move higher and to retest $15.63-15.85-16 levels going forward.
MCX Silver May-2019
Since Mar 1st—39930-37889 (traded range)
Since Feb-20th- 41527-37889 (traded range)
MCX silver may retest 39,500-39,700 levels going forward as rupee appreciating may cap the gains and unlikely to stay above INR 40000 per kg.
Indian rupee against USD
Movement since March 1st---70.99—69.81
Key support-69.20-69—below may drop till-68.50-67.90
Rupee is on a decline when it hits the all time low of 74.47 during mid-October-2018
Rupee is likely to appreciate towards the key support around 69.20-69 levels against the USD.
Upside is capped at around 70.60-70.70 levels
Rupee in the last one month has gained handsomely on strong